Risk-Based Crime Prevention in the Republic of Uzbekistan: From Criminological Forecasting to Preventive Decision-Making

Nigmatov, Ruftullo, Нигматов, Руфтулло, Nigmatov, Ruftullo

Жамият ва инновациялар / Общество и инновации / Society and innovations · 2026-yil

Annotatsiya

The development of criminological forecasting, territorial analysis, and digital methods of data processing expands the possibilities for the early identification of adverse changes in the criminogenic situation. At the same time, it is important for the theory and practice of crime prevention to determine how probabilistic conclusions should be used in preventive decision-making. In the Republic of Uzbekistan, the relevance of this issue is associated with the development of specialized criminological research, the territorial organization of preventive activities, and the digital transformation of internal affairs bodies. The study aims to develop a criminological and legal model for transforming the results of criminological forecasting into preventive decisions and to identify the conditions for its application within the crime prevention system of the Republic of Uzbekistan. The methodological framework combines formal legal, systemic-structural, functional, and comparative criminological methods, together with legal modeling. The study distinguishes between criminological forecasting, criminogenic risk, and the legal grounds for preventive action. Criminogenic risk is defined as a scientifically assessed probability of an adverse change in the criminogenic situation, determined by a specific configuration of criminologically significant factors and relevant to determining a preventive priority. For territorial analysis, the concept of the preventive capacity of the system is proposed to characterize the actual ability of the actors and mechanisms operating within a given territory to identify criminologically significant changes in a timely manner, act upon the identified factors, and prevent the realization of a forecast adverse scenario. The study substantiates the need for two distinct stages in the transition from risk assessment to a preventive decision: criminological explanation and legal assessment. Criminological explanation serves to identify the factors and mechanisms underlying the formation of risk, while legal assessment determines the competent authority, the grounds provided by law, and the permissible limits of preventive action. The study also differentiates the legal significance of territorial and individual forecasting and determines the role of reassessing the initial risk following preventive action. The Republic of Uzbekistan has legal, organizational, and scientific prerequisites for applying the proposed model, including the existing system of offense prevention, the development of the criminological research system, the territorial organization of preventive activities, the multi-agency nature of prevention, and the development of digital infrastructure. At the same time, the development of predictive methods alone does not ensure a transition to risk-based crime prevention. Forecasting must be incorporated into the preventive decision-making process, while digital technologies should retain a supporting role and should not substitute for criminological explanation or legal assessment of the results obtained.

Maqola ma’lumotlari
MualliflarNigmatov, Ruftullo, Нигматов, Руфтулло, Nigmatov, Ruftullo
JurnalЖамият ва инновациялар / Общество и инновации / Society and innovations
NashriyotIn Science МЧЖ
ISSN2181-1415
Nashr sanasi2026-08-05
Jild7
Son4
Betlar277-304
TilIngliz
Ilmiy sohaYuridik
DOI10.47689/2181-1415-vol7-iss4-pp277-304
Indeksga qo‘shilgan2026-09-09

DOI: 10.47689/2181-1415-vol7-iss4-pp277-304 · Maqolaning asl sahifasi

Kalit so‘zlar

риск-ориентированное предупреждение преступности, криминологическое прогнозирование, криминогенный риск, профилактическая способность системы, криминологическое объяснение, правовая оценка, профилактическое воздействие, территориальный анализ риска, повторная оценка риска, risk-based crime prevention, criminological forecasting, criminogenic risk, preventive capacity of the system, criminological explanation, legal assessment, preventive action, territorial risk analysis, risk reassessment, jinoyatchilikning riskka yo‘naltirilgan profilaktikasi, kriminologik prognozlash, kriminogen risk, tizimning profilaktik salohiyati, kriminologik tushuntirish, huquqiy baholash, profilaktik ta’sir, riskning hududiy tahlili, riskni qayta baholash

Ilmiy soha

Yuridik

Iqtibos keltirish

APANigmatov, Ruftullo, Нигматов, Руфтулло, & Nigmatov, Ruftullo (2026). Risk-Based Crime Prevention in the Republic of Uzbekistan: From Criminological Forecasting to Preventive Decision-Making. Жамият ва инновациялар / Общество и инновации / Society and innovations, 7(4), 277-304. https://doi.org/10.47689/2181-1415-vol7-iss4-pp277-304
GOST (OAK)Nigmatov, Ruftullo, Нигматов, Руфтулло, Nigmatov, Ruftullo Risk-Based Crime Prevention in the Republic of Uzbekistan: From Criminological Forecasting to Preventive Decision-Making // Жамият ва инновациялар / Общество и инновации / Society and innovations. – 2026. – T. 7, № 4. – P. 277-304. – DOI: 10.47689/2181-1415-vol7-iss4-pp277-304.
MLANigmatov, Ruftullo, Нигматов, Руфтулло, and Nigmatov, Ruftullo. “Risk-Based Crime Prevention in the Republic of Uzbekistan: From Criminological Forecasting to Preventive Decision-Making.” Жамият ва инновациялар / Общество и инновации / Society and innovations, 7(4), 277-304, 2026. https://doi.org/10.47689/2181-1415-vol7-iss4-pp277-304
ChicagoNigmatov, Ruftullo, Нигматов, Руфтулло, and Nigmatov, Ruftullo. “Risk-Based Crime Prevention in the Republic of Uzbekistan: From Criminological Forecasting to Preventive Decision-Making.” Жамият ва инновациялар / Общество и инновации / Society and innovations, 7(4), 277-304 (2026). https://doi.org/10.47689/2181-1415-vol7-iss4-pp277-304
HarvardNigmatov, Ruftullo, Нигматов, Руфтулло, and Nigmatov, Ruftullo (2026) ‘Risk-Based Crime Prevention in the Republic of Uzbekistan: From Criminological Forecasting to Preventive Decision-Making’, Жамият ва инновациялар / Общество и инновации / Society and innovations, 7(4), 277-304. https://doi.org/10.47689/2181-1415-vol7-iss4-pp277-304
BibTeX
@article{nigmatovruftullo2026,
  title = {Risk-Based Crime Prevention in the Republic of Uzbekistan: From Criminological Forecasting to Preventive Decision-Making},
  author = {Nigmatov, Ruftullo and Нигматов, Руфтулло and Nigmatov, Ruftullo},
  journal = {Жамият ва инновациялар / Общество и инновации / Society and innovations},
  year = {2026},
  volume = {7},
  number = {4},
  pages = {277-304},
  doi = {10.47689/2181-1415-vol7-iss4-pp277-304},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.47689/2181-1415-vol7-iss4-pp277-304}
}

Boshqa maqola uchun iqtibos tayyorlash

Жамият ва инновациялар / Общество и инновации / Society and innovations jurnalidan boshqa maqolalar

Жамият ва инновациялар / Общество и инновации / Society and innovations — barcha maqolalar · 2026-yil arxivi

Nigmatov, Ruftullo — boshqa maqolalari

Yuridik sohasidagi boshqa maqolalar

Yuridik sohasidagi OAK jurnallari