Forecasting regional economic growth processes using arima models

Turayev , Bakhtiyor, Тураев , Бахтиёр, Turayev , Baxtiyor

Илғор иқтисодиёт ва педагогик технологиялар · 2026-yil

Annotatsiya

This article investigates the application of ARIMA models, considered an advanced econometric method for time series analysis, in evaluating and forecasting regional economic growth trends. Corresponding models were constructed based on the dynamics of real economic growth rates and nominal gross regional product (GRP) volume of the Surxondaryo region for the period of 2010–2025. The stationarity of the time series was verified using the Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) test , and the model orders were optimized based on AIC, BIC, and HQC information criteria. As a result of the study, ARIMA(0,1,2) for regional economic growth rates and ARIMA(3,2,2) for nominal GRP volume were specified, and medium-term forecast values for 2026–2031 were calculated. These models and forecasts serve as a scientific and practical basis for decision-makers in ensuring regional economic stability , maintaining employment , and planning fiscal-budgetary indicators

Maqola ma’lumotlari
MualliflarTurayev , Bakhtiyor, Тураев , Бахтиёр, Turayev , Baxtiyor
JurnalИлғор иқтисодиёт ва педагогик технологиялар
NashriyotТошкент давлат иқтисодиёт университети ҳузуридаги «Ўзбекистон иқтисодиётини ривожлантиришнинг илмий асослари ва муаммолари» илмий-тадқиқот маркази
ISSN1994-2025
Nashr sanasi2026-06-18
Jild3
Son3
Betlar658-666
TilIngliz
Ilmiy sohaIqtisodiyot
DOI10.60078/3060-4842-2026-vol3-iss3-pp658-666
Indeksga qo‘shilgan2026-08-26

DOI: 10.60078/3060-4842-2026-vol3-iss3-pp658-666 · Maqolaning asl sahifasi

Kalit so‘zlar

regional economic growth, gross regional product (GRP), ARIMA model, forecasting, time series, stationarity, ADF test, information criteria, Surxondaryo region, региональный экономический рост, валовой региональный продукт (ВРП), модель ARIMA, прогнозирование, временные ряды, стационарность, ADF-тест, информационные критерии, Сурхандарьинская область, hududiy iqtisodiy oʻsish, yalpi hududiy mahsulot (YaHM), ARIMA modeli, prognozlashtirish, vaqtli qatorlar, statsionarlik, ADF testi, axborot mezonlari, Surxondaryo viloyati

Ilmiy soha

Iqtisodiyot

Iqtibos keltirish

APATurayev , Bakhtiyor, Тураев , Бахтиёр, & Turayev , Baxtiyor (2026). FORECASTING REGIONAL ECONOMIC GROWTH PROCESSES USING ARIMA MODELS. Илғор иқтисодиёт ва педагогик технологиялар, 3(3), 658-666. https://doi.org/10.60078/3060-4842-2026-vol3-iss3-pp658-666
GOST (OAK)Turayev , Bakhtiyor, Тураев , Бахтиёр, Turayev , Baxtiyor FORECASTING REGIONAL ECONOMIC GROWTH PROCESSES USING ARIMA MODELS // Илғор иқтисодиёт ва педагогик технологиялар. – 2026. – T. 3, № 3. – P. 658-666. – DOI: 10.60078/3060-4842-2026-vol3-iss3-pp658-666.
MLATurayev , Bakhtiyor, Тураев , Бахтиёр, and Turayev , Baxtiyor. “FORECASTING REGIONAL ECONOMIC GROWTH PROCESSES USING ARIMA MODELS.” Илғор иқтисодиёт ва педагогик технологиялар, 3(3), 658-666, 2026. https://doi.org/10.60078/3060-4842-2026-vol3-iss3-pp658-666
ChicagoTurayev , Bakhtiyor, Тураев , Бахтиёр, and Turayev , Baxtiyor. “FORECASTING REGIONAL ECONOMIC GROWTH PROCESSES USING ARIMA MODELS.” Илғор иқтисодиёт ва педагогик технологиялар, 3(3), 658-666 (2026). https://doi.org/10.60078/3060-4842-2026-vol3-iss3-pp658-666
HarvardTurayev , Bakhtiyor, Тураев , Бахтиёр, and Turayev , Baxtiyor (2026) ‘FORECASTING REGIONAL ECONOMIC GROWTH PROCESSES USING ARIMA MODELS’, Илғор иқтисодиёт ва педагогик технологиялар, 3(3), 658-666. https://doi.org/10.60078/3060-4842-2026-vol3-iss3-pp658-666
BibTeX
@article{turayevbakhtiyor2026,
  title = {FORECASTING REGIONAL ECONOMIC GROWTH PROCESSES USING ARIMA MODELS},
  author = {Turayev , Bakhtiyor and Тураев , Бахтиёр and Turayev , Baxtiyor},
  journal = {Илғор иқтисодиёт ва педагогик технологиялар},
  year = {2026},
  volume = {3},
  number = {3},
  pages = {658-666},
  doi = {10.60078/3060-4842-2026-vol3-iss3-pp658-666},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.60078/3060-4842-2026-vol3-iss3-pp658-666}
}

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