An organizational and methodological model of an early warning system for academic staff turnover in higher education institutions

Kholmatov , Mukhriddin, Холматов , Мухриддин, Xolmatov , Muhriddin

Илғор иқтисодиёт ва педагогик технологиялар · 2026-yil

Annotatsiya

The article develops an organizational and methodological model of an early warning system that anticipates high turnover intention among academic staff of higher education institutions. Using data from an anonymous survey of 1,005 faculty members, attributes recorded in a staff register and indicators from a periodic survey were compared with simple and penalized logistic regression, random forest and gradient boosting. Models based on register attributes alone showed low predictive quality (AUC from 0.628 to 0.684), whereas adding survey indicators raised it to 0.896 and increased the share of at-risk employees identified from 44.8 to 80.4 percent. Predictive quality is determined by the composition of the data rather than by the complexity of the algorithm. On this basis, a six-stage operating cycle is proposed that combines the staff register, an anonymous survey twice a year, aggregation of results by organizational unit and a final decision on any employee taken by a human

Maqola ma’lumotlari
MualliflarKholmatov , Mukhriddin, Холматов , Мухриддин, Xolmatov , Muhriddin
JurnalИлғор иқтисодиёт ва педагогик технологиялар
NashriyotТошкент давлат иқтисодиёт университети ҳузуридаги «Ўзбекистон иқтисодиётини ривожлантиришнинг илмий асослари ва муаммолари» илмий-тадқиқот маркази
ISSN3060-4842
Nashr sanasi2026-10-26
Jild3
Son5
Betlar479-487
TilIngliz
Ilmiy sohaPedagogika
DOI10.60078/3060-4842-2026-vol3-iss5-pp479-487
Indeksga qo‘shilgan2026-10-27

DOI: 10.60078/3060-4842-2026-vol3-iss5-pp479-487 · Maqolaning asl sahifasi

Kalit so‘zlar

staff turnover, early warning system, turnover intention, machine learning, staff register, artificial intelligence, higher education institution, текучесть кадров, система раннего предупреждения, намерение уйти, машинное обучение, кадровый реестр, искусственный интеллект, высшее образовательное учреждение, kadrlar qo‘nimsizligi, erta ogohlantirish tizimi, ketish niyati, mashinali o‘rganish, kadrlar reyestri, sun’iy intellekt, oliy ta’lim muassasasi

Ilmiy soha

Pedagogika

Iqtibos keltirish

APAKholmatov , Mukhriddin, Холматов , Мухриддин, & Xolmatov , Muhriddin (2026). AN ORGANIZATIONAL AND METHODOLOGICAL MODEL OF AN EARLY WARNING SYSTEM FOR ACADEMIC STAFF TURNOVER IN HIGHER EDUCATION INSTITUTIONS. Илғор иқтисодиёт ва педагогик технологиялар, 3(5), 479-487. https://doi.org/10.60078/3060-4842-2026-vol3-iss5-pp479-487
GOST (OAK)Kholmatov , Mukhriddin, Холматов , Мухриддин, Xolmatov , Muhriddin AN ORGANIZATIONAL AND METHODOLOGICAL MODEL OF AN EARLY WARNING SYSTEM FOR ACADEMIC STAFF TURNOVER IN HIGHER EDUCATION INSTITUTIONS // Илғор иқтисодиёт ва педагогик технологиялар. – 2026. – T. 3, № 5. – P. 479-487. – DOI: 10.60078/3060-4842-2026-vol3-iss5-pp479-487.
MLAKholmatov , Mukhriddin, Холматов , Мухриддин, and Xolmatov , Muhriddin. “AN ORGANIZATIONAL AND METHODOLOGICAL MODEL OF AN EARLY WARNING SYSTEM FOR ACADEMIC STAFF TURNOVER IN HIGHER EDUCATION INSTITUTIONS.” Илғор иқтисодиёт ва педагогик технологиялар, 3(5), 479-487, 2026. https://doi.org/10.60078/3060-4842-2026-vol3-iss5-pp479-487
ChicagoKholmatov , Mukhriddin, Холматов , Мухриддин, and Xolmatov , Muhriddin. “AN ORGANIZATIONAL AND METHODOLOGICAL MODEL OF AN EARLY WARNING SYSTEM FOR ACADEMIC STAFF TURNOVER IN HIGHER EDUCATION INSTITUTIONS.” Илғор иқтисодиёт ва педагогик технологиялар, 3(5), 479-487 (2026). https://doi.org/10.60078/3060-4842-2026-vol3-iss5-pp479-487
HarvardKholmatov , Mukhriddin, Холматов , Мухриддин, and Xolmatov , Muhriddin (2026) ‘AN ORGANIZATIONAL AND METHODOLOGICAL MODEL OF AN EARLY WARNING SYSTEM FOR ACADEMIC STAFF TURNOVER IN HIGHER EDUCATION INSTITUTIONS’, Илғор иқтисодиёт ва педагогик технологиялар, 3(5), 479-487. https://doi.org/10.60078/3060-4842-2026-vol3-iss5-pp479-487
BibTeX
@article{kholmatovmukhriddin2026,
  title = {AN ORGANIZATIONAL AND METHODOLOGICAL MODEL OF AN EARLY WARNING SYSTEM FOR ACADEMIC STAFF TURNOVER IN HIGHER EDUCATION INSTITUTIONS},
  author = {Kholmatov , Mukhriddin and Холматов , Мухриддин and Xolmatov , Muhriddin},
  journal = {Илғор иқтисодиёт ва педагогик технологиялар},
  year = {2026},
  volume = {3},
  number = {5},
  pages = {479-487},
  doi = {10.60078/3060-4842-2026-vol3-iss5-pp479-487},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.60078/3060-4842-2026-vol3-iss5-pp479-487}
}

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