This paper estimates the determinants of inbound tourist flows to Uzbekistan using a2023 cross-section of 18 origin countries. Nested log-linear OLS specifications, HC3 robust standarderrors and Poisson pseudo-maximum likelihood are employed. The contribution does not lie in ap-plying the gravity model itself, which is well established in tourism research, but in identifying anUzbekistan-specific regional concentration effect: the largest origin markets are simultaneously geo-graphically close, contiguous, visa-free and culturally connected. Consequently, the baseline distanceelasticity of -2.2 captures a composite spatial-regional effect and becomes unstable once controls areintroduced. Of the six hypotheses, the negative distance effect is supported only in the baselinemodel, while cultural and social proximity is positively significant in PPML. Income, common bor-der, visa-free access and direct flights are not statistically supported because of multicollinearity andinsufficient variation. Comparison with prior tourism studies suggests that these deviations reflectthe structure of the Uzbekistan sample rather than a rejection of general tourism-demand mecha-nisms. A testable digital-proximity extension and a two-stage framework linking predicted arrivalsto tourism receipts and GDP effects are proposed.
| Mualliflar | Mirzoodilov, Javohir, Akhmedova, Kunduz, Goncharenok, Igor |
|---|---|
| Jurnal | Ўзбекистон Миллий университети хабарлари |
| Nashriyot | Ўзбекистон Миллий университети |
| ISSN | 2181-7324, 3093-8996 |
| Nashr sanasi | 2026-10-07 |
| Jild | 2 |
| Son | 2.3 |
| Betlar | 132-139 |
| Til | Ingliz |
| Ilmiy soha | Geografiya |
| Indeksga qo‘shilgan | 2026-10-08 |
inbound tourism; gravity model; Uzbekistan; distance; cultural proximity; PPML; multicollinearity; digital proximity.
| APA | Mirzoodilov, Javohir, Akhmedova, Kunduz, & Goncharenok, Igor (2026). Modelling tourist flows to Uzbekistan: a gravity approach. Ўзбекистон Миллий университети хабарлари, 2(2.3), 132-139. https://journals.nuu.uz/index.php/actanuuz/article/view/15258 |
|---|---|
| GOST (OAK) | Mirzoodilov, Javohir, Akhmedova, Kunduz, Goncharenok, Igor Modelling tourist flows to Uzbekistan: a gravity approach // Ўзбекистон Миллий университети хабарлари. – 2026. – T. 2, № 2.3. – P. 132-139. |
| MLA | Mirzoodilov, Javohir, Akhmedova, Kunduz, and Goncharenok, Igor. “Modelling tourist flows to Uzbekistan: a gravity approach.” Ўзбекистон Миллий университети хабарлари, 2(2.3), 132-139, 2026. https://journals.nuu.uz/index.php/actanuuz/article/view/15258 |
| Chicago | Mirzoodilov, Javohir, Akhmedova, Kunduz, and Goncharenok, Igor. “Modelling tourist flows to Uzbekistan: a gravity approach.” Ўзбекистон Миллий университети хабарлари, 2(2.3), 132-139 (2026). https://journals.nuu.uz/index.php/actanuuz/article/view/15258 |
| Harvard | Mirzoodilov, Javohir, Akhmedova, Kunduz, and Goncharenok, Igor (2026) ‘Modelling tourist flows to Uzbekistan: a gravity approach’, Ўзбекистон Миллий университети хабарлари, 2(2.3), 132-139. https://journals.nuu.uz/index.php/actanuuz/article/view/15258 |
| BibTeX | @article{mirzoodilovjavohir2026,
title = {Modelling tourist flows to Uzbekistan: a gravity approach},
author = {Mirzoodilov, Javohir and Akhmedova, Kunduz and Goncharenok, Igor},
journal = {Ўзбекистон Миллий университети хабарлари},
year = {2026},
volume = {2},
number = {2.3},
pages = {132-139},
url = {https://journals.nuu.uz/index.php/actanuuz/article/view/15258}
} |
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