Econometric modeling of investment activity dynamics and identification of development trends

Almuradov , Abdulla, Asrorova, Aziza, Алмурадов , Абдулла, Асророва , Азиза, Almuradov , Abdulla, Asrorova, Aziza

Иқтисодий тараққиёт ва таҳлил · 2026-yil

Annotatsiya

The paper models the dynamics of investment activity in the Republic of Uzbekistan over 2015–2025 using statistical and econometric techniques. Chain and base growth rates and average annual indicators are computed, and nominal growth is decomposed into the price component and the physical volume component. Five trend functions — linear, parabolic, cubic, exponential and logarithmic — are compared; judged by the approximation error and the Durbin–Watson statistic, the parabolic model performs best (R² = 0.975; MAPE = 11.7 per cent). The analysis distinguishes four stages within the period under review and shows the accelerating character of the investment process.

Maqola ma’lumotlari
MualliflarAlmuradov , Abdulla, Asrorova, Aziza, Алмурадов , Абдулла, Асророва , Азиза, Almuradov , Abdulla, Asrorova, Aziza
JurnalИқтисодий тараққиёт ва таҳлил
NashriyotЎзбекистон иқтисодиётини ривожлантиришнинг илмий-тадқиқот маркази
ISSN2992-877X
Nashr sanasi2026-09-29
Jild4
Son9
Betlar31-38
TilIngliz
Ilmiy sohaIqtisodiyot
DOI10.60078/2992-877x-2026-vol4-iss9-pp31-38
Indeksga qo‘shilgan2026-10-06

DOI: 10.60078/2992-877x-2026-vol4-iss9-pp31-38 · Maqolaning asl sahifasi

Kalit so‘zlar

investment activity, time series, trend model, growth rate, deflation, parabolic trend, approximation error, инвестиционная активность, динамический ряд, трендовая модель, темп роста, дефлятирование, параболический тренд, ошибка аппроксимации, структурный сдвиг, тенденция, investitsion faollik, dinamika qatori, trend modeli, o‘sish sur’ati, deflyatorlash, parabolik trend, approksimatsiya xatoligi, tarkibiy siljish, tendensiya

Ilmiy soha

Iqtisodiyot

Iqtibos keltirish

APAAlmuradov , Abdulla, Asrorova, Aziza, Алмурадов , Абдулла, Асророва , Азиза, Almuradov , Abdulla, & Asrorova, Aziza (2026). ECONOMETRIC MODELING OF INVESTMENT ACTIVITY DYNAMICS AND IDENTIFICATION OF DEVELOPMENT TRENDS. Иқтисодий тараққиёт ва таҳлил, 4(9), 31-38. https://doi.org/10.60078/2992-877x-2026-vol4-iss9-pp31-38
GOST (OAK)Almuradov , Abdulla va b. ECONOMETRIC MODELING OF INVESTMENT ACTIVITY DYNAMICS AND IDENTIFICATION OF DEVELOPMENT TRENDS // Иқтисодий тараққиёт ва таҳлил. – 2026. – T. 4, № 9. – P. 31-38. – DOI: 10.60078/2992-877x-2026-vol4-iss9-pp31-38.
MLAAlmuradov , Abdulla, Asrorova, Aziza, Алмурадов , Абдулла, Асророва , Азиза, Almuradov , Abdulla, and Asrorova, Aziza. “ECONOMETRIC MODELING OF INVESTMENT ACTIVITY DYNAMICS AND IDENTIFICATION OF DEVELOPMENT TRENDS.” Иқтисодий тараққиёт ва таҳлил, 4(9), 31-38, 2026. https://doi.org/10.60078/2992-877x-2026-vol4-iss9-pp31-38
ChicagoAlmuradov , Abdulla, Asrorova, Aziza, Алмурадов , Абдулла, Асророва , Азиза, Almuradov , Abdulla, and Asrorova, Aziza. “ECONOMETRIC MODELING OF INVESTMENT ACTIVITY DYNAMICS AND IDENTIFICATION OF DEVELOPMENT TRENDS.” Иқтисодий тараққиёт ва таҳлил, 4(9), 31-38 (2026). https://doi.org/10.60078/2992-877x-2026-vol4-iss9-pp31-38
HarvardAlmuradov , Abdulla, Asrorova, Aziza, Алмурадов , Абдулла, Асророва , Азиза, Almuradov , Abdulla, and Asrorova, Aziza (2026) ‘ECONOMETRIC MODELING OF INVESTMENT ACTIVITY DYNAMICS AND IDENTIFICATION OF DEVELOPMENT TRENDS’, Иқтисодий тараққиёт ва таҳлил, 4(9), 31-38. https://doi.org/10.60078/2992-877x-2026-vol4-iss9-pp31-38
BibTeX
@article{almuradovabdulla2026,
  title = {ECONOMETRIC MODELING OF INVESTMENT ACTIVITY DYNAMICS AND IDENTIFICATION OF DEVELOPMENT TRENDS},
  author = {Almuradov , Abdulla and Asrorova, Aziza and Алмурадов , Абдулла and Асророва , Азиза and Almuradov , Abdulla and Asrorova, Aziza},
  journal = {Иқтисодий тараққиёт ва таҳлил},
  year = {2026},
  volume = {4},
  number = {9},
  pages = {31-38},
  doi = {10.60078/2992-877x-2026-vol4-iss9-pp31-38},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.60078/2992-877x-2026-vol4-iss9-pp31-38}
}

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