Econometric analysis of the impact of macroeconomic factors on the level of industrialization of the national economy

Erkayev , Akrom, Эркаев , Акром, Erkayev , Akrom

Илғор иқтисодиёт ва педагогик технологиялар · 2026-yil

Annotatsiya

This article presents the results of an econometric assessment of the impact of investment intensity and the share of finished-goods exports on the industrialization level of the national economy. After comparing several alternative specifications, a final two-factor model with a break variable was selected, with a coefficient of determination of 0.90. Analysis of individual coefficients shows that most of the variation in the industrialization level is explained by the 2017 regulatory regime change, while the investment and export coefficients do not reach conventional significance thresholds. The results of the error correction model, Granger causality test, bounds cointegration test, Chow structural stability test, CUSUM test, and retrospective forecast check corroborate the model's conclusions from multiple angles. The findings empirically substantiate that the effectiveness of industrial policy depends not on the volume of instruments but on the institutional structure.

Maqola ma’lumotlari
MualliflarErkayev , Akrom, Эркаев , Акром, Erkayev , Akrom
JurnalИлғор иқтисодиёт ва педагогик технологиялар
NashriyotТошкент давлат иқтисодиёт университети ҳузуридаги «Ўзбекистон иқтисодиётини ривожлантиришнинг илмий асослари ва муаммолари» илмий-тадқиқот маркази
ISSN1994-2025
Nashr sanasi2026-07-22
Jild3
Son4
Betlar69-78
TilIngliz
Ilmiy sohaIqtisodiyot
DOI10.60078/3060-4842-2026-vol3-iss4-pp69-78
Indeksga qo‘shilgan2026-08-26

DOI: 10.60078/3060-4842-2026-vol3-iss4-pp69-78 · Maqolaning asl sahifasi

Kalit so‘zlar

industrialization, econometric model, structural break, stationarity, unit root test, cointegration, error correction model, Granger causality, Chow test, CUSUM test, retrospective forecast, institutional factor, индустриализация, эконометрическая модель, структурный разрыв, стационарность, тест единичного корня, коинтеграция, модель коррекции ошибок, причинность по Грейнджеру, тест Чоу, тест CUSUM, ретроспективный прогноз, институциональный фактор, sanoatlashuv, ekonometrik model, tarkibiy uzilish, statsionarlik, birlik ildiz testi, kointegratsiya, xato tuzatish modeli, Granger sababiyligi, Chou testi, CUSUM testi, retrospektiv bashorat, institutsional omil

Ilmiy soha

Iqtisodiyot

Iqtibos keltirish

APAErkayev , Akrom, Эркаев , Акром, & Erkayev , Akrom (2026). ECONOMETRIC ANALYSIS OF THE IMPACT OF MACROECONOMIC FACTORS ON THE LEVEL OF INDUSTRIALIZATION OF THE NATIONAL ECONOMY. Илғор иқтисодиёт ва педагогик технологиялар, 3(4), 69-78. https://doi.org/10.60078/3060-4842-2026-vol3-iss4-pp69-78
GOST (OAK)Erkayev , Akrom, Эркаев , Акром, Erkayev , Akrom ECONOMETRIC ANALYSIS OF THE IMPACT OF MACROECONOMIC FACTORS ON THE LEVEL OF INDUSTRIALIZATION OF THE NATIONAL ECONOMY // Илғор иқтисодиёт ва педагогик технологиялар. – 2026. – T. 3, № 4. – P. 69-78. – DOI: 10.60078/3060-4842-2026-vol3-iss4-pp69-78.
MLAErkayev , Akrom, Эркаев , Акром, and Erkayev , Akrom. “ECONOMETRIC ANALYSIS OF THE IMPACT OF MACROECONOMIC FACTORS ON THE LEVEL OF INDUSTRIALIZATION OF THE NATIONAL ECONOMY.” Илғор иқтисодиёт ва педагогик технологиялар, 3(4), 69-78, 2026. https://doi.org/10.60078/3060-4842-2026-vol3-iss4-pp69-78
ChicagoErkayev , Akrom, Эркаев , Акром, and Erkayev , Akrom. “ECONOMETRIC ANALYSIS OF THE IMPACT OF MACROECONOMIC FACTORS ON THE LEVEL OF INDUSTRIALIZATION OF THE NATIONAL ECONOMY.” Илғор иқтисодиёт ва педагогик технологиялар, 3(4), 69-78 (2026). https://doi.org/10.60078/3060-4842-2026-vol3-iss4-pp69-78
HarvardErkayev , Akrom, Эркаев , Акром, and Erkayev , Akrom (2026) ‘ECONOMETRIC ANALYSIS OF THE IMPACT OF MACROECONOMIC FACTORS ON THE LEVEL OF INDUSTRIALIZATION OF THE NATIONAL ECONOMY’, Илғор иқтисодиёт ва педагогик технологиялар, 3(4), 69-78. https://doi.org/10.60078/3060-4842-2026-vol3-iss4-pp69-78
BibTeX
@article{erkayevakrom2026,
  title = {ECONOMETRIC ANALYSIS OF THE IMPACT OF MACROECONOMIC FACTORS ON THE LEVEL OF INDUSTRIALIZATION OF THE NATIONAL ECONOMY},
  author = {Erkayev , Akrom and Эркаев , Акром and Erkayev , Akrom},
  journal = {Илғор иқтисодиёт ва педагогик технологиялар},
  year = {2026},
  volume = {3},
  number = {4},
  pages = {69-78},
  doi = {10.60078/3060-4842-2026-vol3-iss4-pp69-78},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.60078/3060-4842-2026-vol3-iss4-pp69-78}
}

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