CAUSAL RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN EXPORTS, IMPORTS AND ECONOMIC GROWTH: TIME SERIES STUDY FOR REPUBLIC OF UZBEKISTAN

Zeinabsadat , Golestan, Ihtisham , Ul Haq, Зейнабсадат , Голестан, Ихтишам , Уль Хак, Zeinabsadat , Golestan, Ihtisham , Ul Haq

Илғор иқтисодиёт ва педагогик технологиялар · 2025-yil

Annotatsiya

This study investigates the causal nexus of imports, exports, and economic growth in Uzbekistan using time series evidence and advanced econometric techniques. The empirical analysis begins with unit root testing by employing the Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) test, followed by the Johansen cointegration test to establish long-run equilibrium relationships between the variables. A Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) is employed to test short- and long-run causality. The results reveal unidirectional causality from imports to exports, changes in import activity significantly influence export performance. The study further finds bidirectional (bicausal) relations between imports and economic growth and between exports and economic growth. The implications of these findings are that both trade components do play a significant role in the economic development of Uzbekistan. The results emphasize the importance of balanced trade policy that benefits both growth in imports and promotion of exports in order to achieve long-term economic growth.

Maqola ma’lumotlari
MualliflarZeinabsadat , Golestan, Ihtisham , Ul Haq, Зейнабсадат , Голестан, Ихтишам , Уль Хак, Zeinabsadat , Golestan, Ihtisham , Ul Haq
JurnalИлғор иқтисодиёт ва педагогик технологиялар
Nashr sanasi2025-06-19
Jild2
Son3
Betlar535-542
TilIngliz
DOI10.60078/3060-4842-2025-vol2-iss3-pp535-542

Kalit so‘zlar

imports, exports, economic growth, Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) test, a Vector Error Correction model (VECM), импорт, экспорт, экономический рост, тест дополненного Дики-Фуллера (ADF), модель векторной коррекции ошибок (VECM), import, eksport, iqtisodiy o‘sish, kengaytirilgan Dikki-Fuller testi (ADF), xatolikni tuzatish vektor modeli (VECM)

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