Causal relationship between exports, imports and economic growth: time series study for republic of Uzbekistan

Zeinabsadat , Golestan, Ihtisham , Ul Haq, Зейнабсадат , Голестан, Ихтишам , Уль Хак, Zeinabsadat , Golestan, Ihtisham , Ul Haq

Илғор иқтисодиёт ва педагогик технологиялар · 2025-yil

Annotatsiya

This study investigates the causal nexus of imports, exports, and economic growth in Uzbekistan using time series evidence and advanced econometric techniques. The empirical analysis begins with unit root testing by employing the Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) test, followed by the Johansen cointegration test to establish long-run equilibrium relationships between the variables. A Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) is employed to test short- and long-run causality. The results reveal unidirectional causality from imports to exports, changes in import activity significantly influence export performance. The study further finds bidirectional (bicausal) relations between imports and economic growth and between exports and economic growth. The implications of these findings are that both trade components do play a significant role in the economic development of Uzbekistan. The results emphasize the importance of balanced trade policy that benefits both growth in imports and promotion of exports in order to achieve long-term economic growth.

Maqola ma’lumotlari
MualliflarZeinabsadat , Golestan, Ihtisham , Ul Haq, Зейнабсадат , Голестан, Ихтишам , Уль Хак, Zeinabsadat , Golestan, Ihtisham , Ul Haq
JurnalИлғор иқтисодиёт ва педагогик технологиялар
NashriyotТошкент давлат иқтисодиёт университети ҳузуридаги «Ўзбекистон иқтисодиётини ривожлантиришнинг илмий асослари ва муаммолари» илмий-тадқиқот маркази
ISSN1994-2025
Nashr sanasi2025-06-19
Jild2
Son3
Betlar535-542
TilIngliz
Ilmiy sohaIqtisodiyot
DOI10.60078/3060-4842-2025-vol2-iss3-pp535-542
Indeksga qo‘shilgan2026-08-26

DOI: 10.60078/3060-4842-2025-vol2-iss3-pp535-542 · Maqolaning asl sahifasi

Kalit so‘zlar

imports, exports, economic growth, Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) test, a Vector Error Correction model (VECM), импорт, экспорт, экономический рост, тест дополненного Дики-Фуллера (ADF), модель векторной коррекции ошибок (VECM), import, eksport, iqtisodiy o‘sish, kengaytirilgan Dikki-Fuller testi (ADF), xatolikni tuzatish vektor modeli (VECM)

Ilmiy soha

Iqtisodiyot

Iqtibos keltirish

APAZeinabsadat , Golestan, Ihtisham , Ul Haq, Зейнабсадат , Голестан, Ихтишам , Уль Хак, Zeinabsadat , Golestan, & Ihtisham , Ul Haq (2025). CAUSAL RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN EXPORTS, IMPORTS AND ECONOMIC GROWTH: TIME SERIES STUDY FOR REPUBLIC OF UZBEKISTAN. Илғор иқтисодиёт ва педагогик технологиялар, 2(3), 535-542. https://doi.org/10.60078/3060-4842-2025-vol2-iss3-pp535-542
GOST (OAK)Zeinabsadat , Golestan va b. CAUSAL RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN EXPORTS, IMPORTS AND ECONOMIC GROWTH: TIME SERIES STUDY FOR REPUBLIC OF UZBEKISTAN // Илғор иқтисодиёт ва педагогик технологиялар. – 2025. – T. 2, № 3. – P. 535-542. – DOI: 10.60078/3060-4842-2025-vol2-iss3-pp535-542.
MLAZeinabsadat , Golestan, Ihtisham , Ul Haq, Зейнабсадат , Голестан, Ихтишам , Уль Хак, Zeinabsadat , Golestan, and Ihtisham , Ul Haq. “CAUSAL RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN EXPORTS, IMPORTS AND ECONOMIC GROWTH: TIME SERIES STUDY FOR REPUBLIC OF UZBEKISTAN.” Илғор иқтисодиёт ва педагогик технологиялар, 2(3), 535-542, 2025. https://doi.org/10.60078/3060-4842-2025-vol2-iss3-pp535-542
ChicagoZeinabsadat , Golestan, Ihtisham , Ul Haq, Зейнабсадат , Голестан, Ихтишам , Уль Хак, Zeinabsadat , Golestan, and Ihtisham , Ul Haq. “CAUSAL RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN EXPORTS, IMPORTS AND ECONOMIC GROWTH: TIME SERIES STUDY FOR REPUBLIC OF UZBEKISTAN.” Илғор иқтисодиёт ва педагогик технологиялар, 2(3), 535-542 (2025). https://doi.org/10.60078/3060-4842-2025-vol2-iss3-pp535-542
HarvardZeinabsadat , Golestan, Ihtisham , Ul Haq, Зейнабсадат , Голестан, Ихтишам , Уль Хак, Zeinabsadat , Golestan, and Ihtisham , Ul Haq (2025) ‘CAUSAL RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN EXPORTS, IMPORTS AND ECONOMIC GROWTH: TIME SERIES STUDY FOR REPUBLIC OF UZBEKISTAN’, Илғор иқтисодиёт ва педагогик технологиялар, 2(3), 535-542. https://doi.org/10.60078/3060-4842-2025-vol2-iss3-pp535-542
BibTeX
@article{zeinabsadatgolestan2025,
  title = {CAUSAL RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN EXPORTS, IMPORTS AND ECONOMIC GROWTH: TIME SERIES STUDY FOR REPUBLIC OF UZBEKISTAN},
  author = {Zeinabsadat , Golestan and Ihtisham , Ul Haq and Зейнабсадат , Голестан and Ихтишам , Уль Хак and Zeinabsadat , Golestan and Ihtisham , Ul Haq},
  journal = {Илғор иқтисодиёт ва педагогик технологиялар},
  year = {2025},
  volume = {2},
  number = {3},
  pages = {535-542},
  doi = {10.60078/3060-4842-2025-vol2-iss3-pp535-542},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.60078/3060-4842-2025-vol2-iss3-pp535-542}
}

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