Small business entities are disproportionately exposed to operational and financial risks owing to constrained resource bases and heightened sensitivity to macroeconomic fluctuations. This study proposes and validates a composite multi-factor scoring model — the Integral Hazard Exposure Index (IHEI) — designed to enable rapid, actionable risk classification of small enterprises. The IHEI integrates four financial indicators: profitability ratio relative to a benchmark (Ri), coverage-fund coefficient relative to a benchmark (Ki), financial-strength margin relative to a benchmark (Mi), and an inverse operating-leverage metric (Oi), with weights determined through a twelve-expert Delphi survey. The model is empirically applied to three small textile enterprises operating in the Namangan region of Uzbekistan — IMIR GROUP, IMRON TEXTILE GROUP, and RAUF-AZIZ — using 2024 CVP-analysis data, yielding IHEI scores of 0.885, 0.848, and 0.809, respectively, classifying them in risk zones B and C. Application of the model at Nafis Tex Group LLC improved the financial-stability integral indicator 2.5-fold (from 0.0724 to 0.1798), increased overall profitability by 4.1 percentage points, and reversed a working-capital deficit of −491 million UZS to a surplus of +4.1 billion UZS by 2025. Regression analysis confirms that accounts-receivable velocity, inventory volume, and credit interest rate explain 88% of liquidity variance (R² = 0.88). Regional macroeconomic risk factors are ranked through Delphi-based expert scoring of ten indicators, identifying import growth and investment volatility as the dominant threats to small enterprises in Namangan. The paper concludes with a proactive ISO 31000-aligned mitigation framework and a 2030 econometric forecast projecting IHEI improvement to 0.95+
| Mualliflar | Nasritdinov, Bekzod |
|---|---|
| Jurnal | Pioneering Studies and Theories |
| Nashr sanasi | 2026-06-18 |
| Jild | 2 |
| Son | 3 |
| Betlar | 40-48 |
| Til | Ingliz |
small business, risk management, multi-factor scoring model, IHEI, Delphi method, CVP analysis, Uzbekistan, Namangan, financial stability, operating leverage, ISO 31000, econometric forecasting
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