A multi-factor scoring approach to risk assessment and mitigation in small business entities: evidence from Uzbekistan

Nasritdinov, Bekzod

Pioneering Studies and Theories · 2026-yil

Annotatsiya

Small business entities are disproportionately exposed to operational and financial risks owing to constrained resource bases and heightened sensitivity to macroeconomic fluctuations. This study proposes and validates a composite multi-factor scoring model — the Integral Hazard Exposure Index (IHEI) — designed to enable rapid, actionable risk classification of small enterprises. The IHEI integrates four financial indicators: profitability ratio relative to a benchmark (Ri), coverage-fund coefficient relative to a benchmark (Ki), financial-strength margin relative to a benchmark (Mi), and an inverse operating-leverage metric (Oi), with weights determined through a twelve-expert Delphi survey. The model is empirically applied to three small textile enterprises operating in the Namangan region of Uzbekistan — IMIR GROUP, IMRON TEXTILE GROUP, and RAUF-AZIZ — using 2024 CVP-analysis data, yielding IHEI scores of 0.885, 0.848, and 0.809, respectively, classifying them in risk zones B and C. Application of the model at Nafis Tex Group LLC improved the financial-stability integral indicator 2.5-fold (from 0.0724 to 0.1798), increased overall profitability by 4.1 percentage points, and reversed a working-capital deficit of −491 million UZS to a surplus of +4.1 billion UZS by 2025. Regression analysis confirms that accounts-receivable velocity, inventory volume, and credit interest rate explain 88% of liquidity variance (R² = 0.88). Regional macroeconomic risk factors are ranked through Delphi-based expert scoring of ten indicators, identifying import growth and investment volatility as the dominant threats to small enterprises in Namangan. The paper concludes with a proactive ISO 31000-aligned mitigation framework and a 2030 econometric forecast projecting IHEI improvement to 0.95+

Maqola ma’lumotlari
MualliflarNasritdinov, Bekzod
JurnalPioneering Studies and Theories
NashriyotХалқаро Нордик университети
ISSN3060-5105, 3060-5105
Nashr sanasi2026-06-18
Jild2
Son3
Betlar40-48
TilIngliz
Ilmiy sohaIqtisodiyot
Indeksga qo‘shilgan2026-08-26

Maqolaning asl sahifasi

Kalit so‘zlar

small business, risk management, multi-factor scoring model, IHEI, Delphi method, CVP analysis, Uzbekistan, Namangan, financial stability, operating leverage, ISO 31000, econometric forecasting

Ilmiy soha

Iqtisodiyot

Iqtibos keltirish

APANasritdinov, Bekzod (2026). A MULTI-FACTOR SCORING APPROACH TO RISK ASSESSMENT AND MITIGATION IN SMALL BUSINESS ENTITIES: EVIDENCE FROM UZBEKISTAN. Pioneering Studies and Theories, 2(3), 40-48. https://pstjournal.uz/index.php/pst/article/view/129
GOST (OAK)Nasritdinov, Bekzod A MULTI-FACTOR SCORING APPROACH TO RISK ASSESSMENT AND MITIGATION IN SMALL BUSINESS ENTITIES: EVIDENCE FROM UZBEKISTAN // Pioneering Studies and Theories. – 2026. – T. 2, № 3. – P. 40-48.
MLANasritdinov, Bekzod. “A MULTI-FACTOR SCORING APPROACH TO RISK ASSESSMENT AND MITIGATION IN SMALL BUSINESS ENTITIES: EVIDENCE FROM UZBEKISTAN.” Pioneering Studies and Theories, 2(3), 40-48, 2026. https://pstjournal.uz/index.php/pst/article/view/129
ChicagoNasritdinov, Bekzod. “A MULTI-FACTOR SCORING APPROACH TO RISK ASSESSMENT AND MITIGATION IN SMALL BUSINESS ENTITIES: EVIDENCE FROM UZBEKISTAN.” Pioneering Studies and Theories, 2(3), 40-48 (2026). https://pstjournal.uz/index.php/pst/article/view/129
HarvardNasritdinov, Bekzod (2026) ‘A MULTI-FACTOR SCORING APPROACH TO RISK ASSESSMENT AND MITIGATION IN SMALL BUSINESS ENTITIES: EVIDENCE FROM UZBEKISTAN’, Pioneering Studies and Theories, 2(3), 40-48. https://pstjournal.uz/index.php/pst/article/view/129
BibTeX
@article{nasritdinovbekzod2026,
  title = {A MULTI-FACTOR SCORING APPROACH TO RISK ASSESSMENT AND MITIGATION IN SMALL BUSINESS ENTITIES: EVIDENCE FROM UZBEKISTAN},
  author = {Nasritdinov, Bekzod},
  journal = {Pioneering Studies and Theories},
  year = {2026},
  volume = {2},
  number = {3},
  pages = {40-48},
  url = {https://pstjournal.uz/index.php/pst/article/view/129}
}

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