Enhancing forecasting approaches for value added tax and excise tax revenues in the context of the digital economy

Dusiyarov, Sherzod Kh.

Innovation science and technologiy · 2026-yil

Annotatsiya

This article provides a comprehensive analysis of existing approaches to forecasting revenues from ValueAdded Tax (VAT) and excise taxes. Based on official statistical data covering the period 2020–2026, the study examinesthe dynamics of tax revenues and identifies the key factors influencing their formation. In addition to macroeconomicindicators such as economic growth, particular emphasis is placed on institutional and administrative determinants,including the effectiveness of tax administration, changes in tax policy, VAT refund mechanisms, and the impact of theshadow economy.The findings indicate that conventional forecasting approaches do not fully capture the underlying mechanisms oftax revenue formation. In response, the study proposes a simplified integrated model that combines both economic andinstitutional factors. This approach enhances the accuracy of tax revenue forecasting, improves the effectiveness of budgetplanning, and contributes to strengthening fiscal sustainability

Maqola ma’lumotlari
MualliflarDusiyarov, Sherzod Kh.
JurnalInnovation science and technologiy
NashriyotТошкент давлат иқтисодиёт университети
Nashr sanasi2026-04-01
Jild2
Son4
TilIngliz
Ilmiy sohaIqtisodiyot
DOI10.5281/zenodo.20048375
Indeksga qo‘shilgan2026-08-26

DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.20048375 · Maqolaning asl sahifasi

Kalit so‘zlar

Value Added Tax (VAT), excise tax, tax revenues, forecasting, tax administration, digital economy, fiscal policy, budget revenues

Ilmiy soha

Iqtisodiyot

Iqtibos keltirish

APADusiyarov, Sherzod Kh. (2026). ENHANCING FORECASTING APPROACHES FOR VALUE ADDED TAX AND EXCISE TAX REVENUES IN THE CONTEXT OF THE DIGITAL ECONOMY. Innovation science and technologiy, 2(4). https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.20048375
GOST (OAK)Dusiyarov, Sherzod Kh. ENHANCING FORECASTING APPROACHES FOR VALUE ADDED TAX AND EXCISE TAX REVENUES IN THE CONTEXT OF THE DIGITAL ECONOMY // Innovation science and technologiy. – 2026. – T. 2, № 4. – DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.20048375.
MLADusiyarov, Sherzod Kh. “ENHANCING FORECASTING APPROACHES FOR VALUE ADDED TAX AND EXCISE TAX REVENUES IN THE CONTEXT OF THE DIGITAL ECONOMY.” Innovation science and technologiy, 2(4), 2026. https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.20048375
ChicagoDusiyarov, Sherzod Kh. “ENHANCING FORECASTING APPROACHES FOR VALUE ADDED TAX AND EXCISE TAX REVENUES IN THE CONTEXT OF THE DIGITAL ECONOMY.” Innovation science and technologiy, 2(4) (2026). https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.20048375
HarvardDusiyarov, Sherzod Kh (2026) ‘ENHANCING FORECASTING APPROACHES FOR VALUE ADDED TAX AND EXCISE TAX REVENUES IN THE CONTEXT OF THE DIGITAL ECONOMY’, Innovation science and technologiy, 2(4). https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.20048375
BibTeX
@article{dusiyarovsherzodkh2026,
  title = {ENHANCING FORECASTING APPROACHES FOR VALUE ADDED TAX AND EXCISE TAX REVENUES IN THE CONTEXT OF THE DIGITAL ECONOMY},
  author = {Dusiyarov, Sherzod Kh.},
  journal = {Innovation science and technologiy},
  year = {2026},
  volume = {2},
  number = {4},
  doi = {10.5281/zenodo.20048375},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.20048375}
}

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