Tourism’s macroeconomic contribution and post-pandemic resilience: GDP and employment dynamics, 2015-2025, with projections to 2030

B. Sobirov

Муҳандислик ва Иқтисодиёт · 2026-yil

Annotatsiya

The COVID-19 pandemic caused one of the most significant contractions in the modern history of tourism,providing a natural experiment in the sector’s macroeconomic weight and resilience. This study analyses the trajectoryof tourism’s contribution to global gross domestic product and employment over 2015–2025 and projects it to 2030. Tourism’sGDP share, stable at about 10.3 percent on the eve of the pandemic, declined to 5.5 percent in 2020 — a 47 percentcontraction — before recovering to 10.3 percent by 2025; its employment share fell more modestly, from 10.3 to 8.4 percent— an 18 percent contraction — and recovered to 10.9 percent. The asymmetry between the deep, V-shaped outputcontraction and the shallower, more persistent employment adjustment is the study’s central empirical finding, indicatingsubstantial labour retention and a slower but ultimately fuller employment recovery. Trend projections point to continuedexpansion of both shares through 2030. The results quantify tourism’s macroeconomic significance, characterize its resilienceprofile, and inform countercyclical and workforce policy.

Maqola ma’lumotlari
MualliflarB. Sobirov
JurnalМуҳандислик ва Иқтисодиёт
NashriyotПлеханов номидаги Россия иқтисодиёти университетининг Тошкент шаҳридаги филиали
ISSN3060-463X, 3060-463X
Nashr sanasi2026-05-01
Jild4
Son5
TilIngliz
Ilmiy sohaIqtisodiyot
Indeksga qo‘shilgan2026-08-26

Maqolaning asl sahifasi

Kalit so‘zlar

tourism economics; GDP contribution; employment; resilience; COVID-19; recovery; forecasting

Ilmiy soha

Iqtisodiyot

Iqtibos keltirish

APAB. Sobirov (2026). TOURISM’S MACROECONOMIC CONTRIBUTION AND POST-PANDEMIC RESILIENCE: GDP AND EMPLOYMENT DYNAMICS, 2015-2025, WITH PROJECTIONS TO 2030. Муҳандислик ва Иқтисодиёт, 4(5). https://muhandislik-iqtisodiyot.uz/index.php/journal/article/view/3498
GOST (OAK)B. Sobirov TOURISM’S MACROECONOMIC CONTRIBUTION AND POST-PANDEMIC RESILIENCE: GDP AND EMPLOYMENT DYNAMICS, 2015-2025, WITH PROJECTIONS TO 2030 // Муҳандислик ва Иқтисодиёт. – 2026. – T. 4, № 5.
MLAB. Sobirov. “TOURISM’S MACROECONOMIC CONTRIBUTION AND POST-PANDEMIC RESILIENCE: GDP AND EMPLOYMENT DYNAMICS, 2015-2025, WITH PROJECTIONS TO 2030.” Муҳандислик ва Иқтисодиёт, 4(5), 2026. https://muhandislik-iqtisodiyot.uz/index.php/journal/article/view/3498
ChicagoB. Sobirov. “TOURISM’S MACROECONOMIC CONTRIBUTION AND POST-PANDEMIC RESILIENCE: GDP AND EMPLOYMENT DYNAMICS, 2015-2025, WITH PROJECTIONS TO 2030.” Муҳандислик ва Иқтисодиёт, 4(5) (2026). https://muhandislik-iqtisodiyot.uz/index.php/journal/article/view/3498
HarvardB. Sobirov (2026) ‘TOURISM’S MACROECONOMIC CONTRIBUTION AND POST-PANDEMIC RESILIENCE: GDP AND EMPLOYMENT DYNAMICS, 2015-2025, WITH PROJECTIONS TO 2030’, Муҳандислик ва Иқтисодиёт, 4(5). https://muhandislik-iqtisodiyot.uz/index.php/journal/article/view/3498
BibTeX
@article{bsobirov2026,
  title = {TOURISM’S MACROECONOMIC CONTRIBUTION AND POST-PANDEMIC RESILIENCE: GDP AND EMPLOYMENT DYNAMICS, 2015-2025, WITH PROJECTIONS TO 2030},
  author = {B. Sobirov},
  journal = {Муҳандислик ва Иқтисодиёт},
  year = {2026},
  volume = {4},
  number = {5},
  url = {https://muhandislik-iqtisodiyot.uz/index.php/journal/article/view/3498}
}

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