Potential GDP Estimation and Output Gaps: Insights from Cross-Country Studies and Applications to Developing Economies

Mukhammedova , Azizakhon

Муҳандислик ва Иқтисодиёт · 2025-yil

Annotatsiya

Despite being essential instruments in macroeconomic research, potential GDP and the production gap arenevertheless difficult to estimate because of methodological decisions, structural variations, and data constraints.Evidence from cross-national studies examining mature, resource-dependent, and transition economies—such as thosein the European Union, Japan, Saudi Arabia, Croatia, and Moldova—is reviewed in this study. It analyzes the advantagesand disadvantages of the three primary methods—statistical filters, production functions, and multivariate frameworks. Thefindings indicate that demographic changes are important for advanced economies, sectoral disaggregation is essentialfor resource economies, and catastrophes like the global financial crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic permanently lowerpotential production. Notwithstanding variations in methodology, the production gap is still a crucial tool for monetary andfiscal policy and reliably forecasts inflation. In order to provide credible economic management, the article suggests thatpotential GDP should be seen as a dynamic standard that requires ongoing methodological improvement and contextspecificapplication

Maqola ma’lumotlari
MualliflarMukhammedova , Azizakhon
JurnalМуҳандислик ва Иқтисодиёт
Nashr sanasi2025-08-01
Jild3
Son8
TilIngliz

Maqolaning asl sahifasi

Kalit so‘zlar

Potential GDP, Output gap, Cross-country analysis, Statistical filters, Production function, Multivariate models, Economic crises, Fiscal and monetary policy, Advanced economies, Resource-dependent economies

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IqtisodiyotTexnika

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