Potential GDP Estimation and Output Gaps in Emerging Economies: A Comparative Review

Mukhammedova , Azizakhon

Муҳандислик ва Иқтисодиёт · 2025-yil

Annotatsiya

Estimating potential GDP and output gaps in emerging economies is particularly difficult due to limited data, structuralissues, and external shocks that hinder accurate measurement. This paper combines evidence from Romania, Ethiopia,Moldova, and Saudi Arabia's non-oil sector to assess the effectiveness of statistical filters, production functions, and variousmultivariate or hybrid methods. Research shows that crises have a more profound and lasting impact on potential output indeveloping countries. Structural issues like labor migration, weak institutions, and reliance on commodities increase thesevulnerabilities. Romania’s multivariate models, Ethiopia’s ARDL framework, and Moldova’s diverse methods showcaseboth creativity and challenges in estimating emerging economies. Saudi Arabia's non-oil growth shows strong resilienceamid its diversification efforts. The review finds that although simple methods offer useful benchmarks, multivariate andhybrid approaches yield more dependable policy signals. Enhancing data systems, promoting transparency, and tailoringapproaches to fit institutional contexts are vital for credible and sustainable growth in emerging economies

Maqola ma’lumotlari
MualliflarMukhammedova , Azizakhon
JurnalМуҳандислик ва Иқтисодиёт
Nashr sanasi2025-09-01
Jild3
Son9
TilIngliz

Kalit so‘zlar

Potential GDP, Output gap, Emerging economies, Statistical filters, Production function, Multivariate and hybrid models, Economic crises, Structural reforms, Data limitations, Fiscal and monetary policy in developing countries

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