Potential GDP Estimation and Output Gaps in Emerging Economies: A Comparative Review

Mukhammedova , Azizakhon

Муҳандислик ва Иқтисодиёт · 2025-yil

Annotatsiya

Estimating potential GDP and output gaps in emerging economies is particularly difficult due to limited data, structuralissues, and external shocks that hinder accurate measurement. This paper combines evidence from Romania, Ethiopia,Moldova, and Saudi Arabia's non-oil sector to assess the effectiveness of statistical filters, production functions, and variousmultivariate or hybrid methods. Research shows that crises have a more profound and lasting impact on potential output indeveloping countries. Structural issues like labor migration, weak institutions, and reliance on commodities increase thesevulnerabilities. Romania’s multivariate models, Ethiopia’s ARDL framework, and Moldova’s diverse methods showcaseboth creativity and challenges in estimating emerging economies. Saudi Arabia's non-oil growth shows strong resilienceamid its diversification efforts. The review finds that although simple methods offer useful benchmarks, multivariate andhybrid approaches yield more dependable policy signals. Enhancing data systems, promoting transparency, and tailoringapproaches to fit institutional contexts are vital for credible and sustainable growth in emerging economies

Maqola ma’lumotlari
MualliflarMukhammedova , Azizakhon
JurnalМуҳандислик ва Иқтисодиёт
NashriyotПлеханов номидаги Россия иқтисодиёти университетининг Тошкент шаҳридаги филиали
ISSN3060-463X, 3060-463X
Nashr sanasi2025-09-01
Jild3
Son9
TilIngliz
Ilmiy sohaIqtisodiyot
Indeksga qo‘shilgan2026-08-26

Maqolaning asl sahifasi

Kalit so‘zlar

Potential GDP, Output gap, Emerging economies, Statistical filters, Production function, Multivariate and hybrid models, Economic crises, Structural reforms, Data limitations, Fiscal and monetary policy in developing countries

Ilmiy soha

Iqtisodiyot

Iqtibos keltirish

APAMukhammedova , Azizakhon (2025). Potential GDP Estimation and Output Gaps in Emerging Economies: A Comparative Review. Муҳандислик ва Иқтисодиёт, 3(9). https://muhandislik-iqtisodiyot.uz/index.php/journal/article/view/1015
GOST (OAK)Mukhammedova , Azizakhon Potential GDP Estimation and Output Gaps in Emerging Economies: A Comparative Review // Муҳандислик ва Иқтисодиёт. – 2025. – T. 3, № 9.
MLAMukhammedova , Azizakhon. “Potential GDP Estimation and Output Gaps in Emerging Economies: A Comparative Review.” Муҳандислик ва Иқтисодиёт, 3(9), 2025. https://muhandislik-iqtisodiyot.uz/index.php/journal/article/view/1015
ChicagoMukhammedova , Azizakhon. “Potential GDP Estimation and Output Gaps in Emerging Economies: A Comparative Review.” Муҳандислик ва Иқтисодиёт, 3(9) (2025). https://muhandislik-iqtisodiyot.uz/index.php/journal/article/view/1015
HarvardMukhammedova , Azizakhon (2025) ‘Potential GDP Estimation and Output Gaps in Emerging Economies: A Comparative Review’, Муҳандислик ва Иқтисодиёт, 3(9). https://muhandislik-iqtisodiyot.uz/index.php/journal/article/view/1015
BibTeX
@article{mukhammedovaazizakhon2025,
  title = {Potential GDP Estimation and Output Gaps in Emerging Economies: A Comparative Review},
  author = {Mukhammedova , Azizakhon},
  journal = {Муҳандислик ва Иқтисодиёт},
  year = {2025},
  volume = {3},
  number = {9},
  url = {https://muhandislik-iqtisodiyot.uz/index.php/journal/article/view/1015}
}

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