Agricultural credit risk and its macroeconomic determinants

Ahmadi Muhammad Naim

Agroinnovatsiya · 2026-yil

Annotatsiya

Agricultural credit plays an important role in supporting farm production, agricultural investment, rural employment, and food security. However, lending to the agricultural sector involves specific risks arising from production uncertainty, seasonal income patterns, market price fluctuations, and borrowers’ exposure to adverse economic conditions. Macroeconomic instability may further affect farmers’ repayment capacity and the quality of agricultural loan portfolios. This study aims to examine the macroeconomic determinants of agricultural credit risk, focusing on economic growth, inflation, exchange rate movements, unemployment, and agricultural production growth. Agricultural credit risk is proposed to be measured using the non-performing loan (NPL) ratio for agricultural loans. The research adopts a quantitative approach based on secondary data obtained from official statistical and financial institutions, subject to data availability. A multiple regression model is proposed to investigate the relationships between the selected macroeconomic indicators and agricultural credit risk. The study also considers the potential implications of agricultural credit risk for financial stability, farm investment, and sustainable agricultural development. The expected contribution is a sector-specific analytical framework that connects macroeconomic conditions with agricultural lending performance. The direction and magnitude of the relationships will be established through empirical analysis rather than assumed in advance. The practical implications may support agricultural credit risk assessment, early-warning systems, and evidence-based lending policies.

Maqola ma’lumotlari
MualliflarAhmadi Muhammad Naim
JurnalAgroinnovatsiya
NashriyotТермиз давлат муҳандислик ва агротехнологиялар университети
ISSN3030-3249
Nashr sanasi2026-10-11
Jild4
Son5
Betlar154-158
TilIngliz
Ilmiy sohaQishloq xo‘jaligi
Indeksga qo‘shilgan2026-10-12

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agricultural credit risk

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Iqtibos keltirish

APAAhmadi Muhammad Naim (2026). AGRICULTURAL CREDIT RISK AND ITS MACROECONOMIC DETERMINANTS. Agroinnovatsiya, 4(5), 154-158. https://agroinnovatsiya.uz/index.php/ag/article/view/402
GOST (OAK)Ahmadi Muhammad Naim AGRICULTURAL CREDIT RISK AND ITS MACROECONOMIC DETERMINANTS // Agroinnovatsiya. – 2026. – T. 4, № 5. – P. 154-158.
MLAAhmadi Muhammad Naim. “AGRICULTURAL CREDIT RISK AND ITS MACROECONOMIC DETERMINANTS.” Agroinnovatsiya, 4(5), 154-158, 2026. https://agroinnovatsiya.uz/index.php/ag/article/view/402
ChicagoAhmadi Muhammad Naim. “AGRICULTURAL CREDIT RISK AND ITS MACROECONOMIC DETERMINANTS.” Agroinnovatsiya, 4(5), 154-158 (2026). https://agroinnovatsiya.uz/index.php/ag/article/view/402
HarvardAhmadi Muhammad Naim (2026) ‘AGRICULTURAL CREDIT RISK AND ITS MACROECONOMIC DETERMINANTS’, Agroinnovatsiya, 4(5), 154-158. https://agroinnovatsiya.uz/index.php/ag/article/view/402
BibTeX
@article{ahmadimuhammadnaim2026,
  title = {AGRICULTURAL CREDIT RISK AND ITS MACROECONOMIC DETERMINANTS},
  author = {Ahmadi Muhammad Naim},
  journal = {Agroinnovatsiya},
  year = {2026},
  volume = {4},
  number = {5},
  pages = {154-158},
  url = {https://agroinnovatsiya.uz/index.php/ag/article/view/402}
}

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