Empirical evaluation of the factors associated with applicant behaviour in higher education choice: individual cut-offs, threshold heterogeneity, and the limits of aggregate detection

Umarov , Shuhrat

Муҳандислик ва Иқтисодиёт · 2026-yil

Annotatsiya

Whether applicants screen higher education institutions using attribute-specific thresholds or evaluate theirattributes through compensatory trade-offs is fundamentally an individual-level question, although it is often examinedusing institution-level data. This article investigates the issue using applicant-level data. A survey of 640 applicants inUzbekistan records the institutions known to each respondent, the subset seriously considered, and the attribute associatedwith the first reported exclusion. Three constructs organise the analysis: cut-off incidence, threshold heterogeneity,and stage-specific attribute weight.The results provide clear evidence of individual-level screening while illustrating the limitations of aggregate detection.Applicants exclude 67.6 per cent of the institutions known to them before applying, and 85.0 per cent report excluding atleast one institution on the basis of a single attribute without considering a compensating trade-off. These findings indicatethat non-compensatory screening is an observed feature of applicant choice within the sample rather than solely amodelling assumption.The attribute associated with the first exclusion is tuition for 25.5 per cent of applicants, distance for 23.0 per cent,absence of the relevant programme for 18.9 per cent, and the entry score for 12.8 per cent. The distribution thereforeindicates substantial heterogeneity in the attributes associated with initial exclusion rather than concentration around asingle dominant attribute. Individual tuition cut-offs range from UZS 7.7 million at the 10th percentile to UZS 41.3 millionat the 90th percentile, a ratio of 5.35, while the densest UZS 2 million interval anywhere along the observed distributioncontains 11.3 per cent of applicants.Despite these individual-level screening patterns, the corresponding aggregate relationship contains no clear discontinuity.A threshold search applied to the aggregate data identifies a kink at UZS 30 million, although this value correspondsto the reported cut-off of only 5.5 per cent of the sample. At the same parameter count, a quadratic specification inlogarithms provides a better fit to the aggregate relationship than the kink model, with R² values of 0.9939 and 0.9900,respectively. A two-parameter probit specification consistent with dispersed individual cut-offs provides a slightly better fitstill, with R² = 0.9946. These findings indicate that the absence of a detectable aggregate threshold does not, by itself,establish the absence of individual-level screening. Conversely, an aggregate threshold test alone is insufficient to establishthe presence of such screening at the individual level.

Maqola ma’lumotlari
MualliflarUmarov , Shuhrat
JurnalМуҳандислик ва Иқтисодиёт
NashriyotПлеханов номидаги Россия иқтисодиёти университетининг Тошкент шаҳридаги филиали
ISSN3060-463X, 3060-463X
Nashr sanasi2026-08-01
Jild4
Son8
Betlar68-79
TilIngliz
Indeksga qo‘shilgan2026-09-19

Maqolaning asl sahifasi

Kalit so‘zlar

applicant behaviour; consideration set; non-compensatory screening; threshold heterogeneity; ecological inference; higher education choice; Uzbekistan

Iqtibos keltirish

APAUmarov , Shuhrat (2026). EMPIRICAL EVALUATION OF THE FACTORS ASSOCIATED WITH APPLICANT BEHAVIOUR IN HIGHER EDUCATION CHOICE: INDIVIDUAL CUT-OFFS, THRESHOLD HETEROGENEITY, AND THE LIMITS OF AGGREGATE DETECTION. Муҳандислик ва Иқтисодиёт, 4(8), 68-79. https://muhandislik-iqtisodiyot.uz/index.php/journal/article/view/4322
GOST (OAK)Umarov , Shuhrat EMPIRICAL EVALUATION OF THE FACTORS ASSOCIATED WITH APPLICANT BEHAVIOUR IN HIGHER EDUCATION CHOICE: INDIVIDUAL CUT-OFFS, THRESHOLD HETEROGENEITY, AND THE LIMITS OF AGGREGATE DETECTION // Муҳандислик ва Иқтисодиёт. – 2026. – T. 4, № 8. – P. 68-79.
MLAUmarov , Shuhrat. “EMPIRICAL EVALUATION OF THE FACTORS ASSOCIATED WITH APPLICANT BEHAVIOUR IN HIGHER EDUCATION CHOICE: INDIVIDUAL CUT-OFFS, THRESHOLD HETEROGENEITY, AND THE LIMITS OF AGGREGATE DETECTION.” Муҳандислик ва Иқтисодиёт, 4(8), 68-79, 2026. https://muhandislik-iqtisodiyot.uz/index.php/journal/article/view/4322
ChicagoUmarov , Shuhrat. “EMPIRICAL EVALUATION OF THE FACTORS ASSOCIATED WITH APPLICANT BEHAVIOUR IN HIGHER EDUCATION CHOICE: INDIVIDUAL CUT-OFFS, THRESHOLD HETEROGENEITY, AND THE LIMITS OF AGGREGATE DETECTION.” Муҳандислик ва Иқтисодиёт, 4(8), 68-79 (2026). https://muhandislik-iqtisodiyot.uz/index.php/journal/article/view/4322
HarvardUmarov , Shuhrat (2026) ‘EMPIRICAL EVALUATION OF THE FACTORS ASSOCIATED WITH APPLICANT BEHAVIOUR IN HIGHER EDUCATION CHOICE: INDIVIDUAL CUT-OFFS, THRESHOLD HETEROGENEITY, AND THE LIMITS OF AGGREGATE DETECTION’, Муҳандислик ва Иқтисодиёт, 4(8), 68-79. https://muhandislik-iqtisodiyot.uz/index.php/journal/article/view/4322
BibTeX
@article{umarovshuhrat2026,
  title = {EMPIRICAL EVALUATION OF THE FACTORS ASSOCIATED WITH APPLICANT BEHAVIOUR IN HIGHER EDUCATION CHOICE: INDIVIDUAL CUT-OFFS, THRESHOLD HETEROGENEITY, AND THE LIMITS OF AGGREGATE DETECTION},
  author = {Umarov , Shuhrat},
  journal = {Муҳандислик ва Иқтисодиёт},
  year = {2026},
  volume = {4},
  number = {8},
  pages = {68-79},
  url = {https://muhandislik-iqtisodiyot.uz/index.php/journal/article/view/4322}
}

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