Forecasting energy consumption in Uzbekistan

Mamasoliyev , Sarvar, Мамасалиев , Сарвар, Mamasoliyev, Sarvar

Иқтисодий тараққиёт ва таҳлил · 2025-yil

Annotatsiya

It is vital to establish trustworthy forecasting methodologies in order to predict and assess a country's energy consumption ahead of time. This enables economists to better track and analyze consumers' energy needs. To that purpose, this study was done to establish the Republic of Uzbekistan's long-term energy consumption forecast using data on energy consumption volume acquired between 1985 and 2023. The forecasting procedure used the econometric ARIMA model. The Box-Jenkins approach was used to determine the optimal ARIMA order. According to the findings, the ARIMA (0,1,3) model was shown to be the most accurate. Based on this model, the entire predicted results had an average percentage inaccuracy of 7.2 percent. It was discovered that ARIMA is the most effective model for making long-term strategic decisions about energy consumption.

Maqola ma’lumotlari
MualliflarMamasoliyev , Sarvar, Мамасалиев , Сарвар, Mamasoliyev, Sarvar
JurnalИқтисодий тараққиёт ва таҳлил
NashriyotЎзбекистон иқтисодиётини ривожлантиришнинг илмий-тадқиқот маркази
ISSN2992-877X
Nashr sanasi2025-04-30
Jild3
Son4
Betlar154-165
TilIngliz
Ilmiy sohaIqtisodiyot
DOI10.60078/2992-877x-2025-vol3-iss4-pp154-165
Indeksga qo‘shilgan2026-08-27

DOI: 10.60078/2992-877x-2025-vol3-iss4-pp154-165 · Maqolaning asl sahifasi

Kalit so‘zlar

ARIMA, AIC, BIC, stationarity, ARIMA, AIC, BIC, стационарность, ARIMA, AIC, BIC, statsionarlik

Ilmiy soha

Iqtisodiyot

Iqtibos keltirish

APAMamasoliyev , Sarvar, Мамасалиев , Сарвар, & Mamasoliyev, Sarvar (2025). FORECASTING ENERGY CONSUMPTION IN UZBEKISTAN. Иқтисодий тараққиёт ва таҳлил, 3(4), 154-165. https://doi.org/10.60078/2992-877x-2025-vol3-iss4-pp154-165
GOST (OAK)Mamasoliyev , Sarvar, Мамасалиев , Сарвар, Mamasoliyev, Sarvar FORECASTING ENERGY CONSUMPTION IN UZBEKISTAN // Иқтисодий тараққиёт ва таҳлил. – 2025. – T. 3, № 4. – P. 154-165. – DOI: 10.60078/2992-877x-2025-vol3-iss4-pp154-165.
MLAMamasoliyev , Sarvar, Мамасалиев , Сарвар, and Mamasoliyev, Sarvar. “FORECASTING ENERGY CONSUMPTION IN UZBEKISTAN.” Иқтисодий тараққиёт ва таҳлил, 3(4), 154-165, 2025. https://doi.org/10.60078/2992-877x-2025-vol3-iss4-pp154-165
ChicagoMamasoliyev , Sarvar, Мамасалиев , Сарвар, and Mamasoliyev, Sarvar. “FORECASTING ENERGY CONSUMPTION IN UZBEKISTAN.” Иқтисодий тараққиёт ва таҳлил, 3(4), 154-165 (2025). https://doi.org/10.60078/2992-877x-2025-vol3-iss4-pp154-165
HarvardMamasoliyev , Sarvar, Мамасалиев , Сарвар, and Mamasoliyev, Sarvar (2025) ‘FORECASTING ENERGY CONSUMPTION IN UZBEKISTAN’, Иқтисодий тараққиёт ва таҳлил, 3(4), 154-165. https://doi.org/10.60078/2992-877x-2025-vol3-iss4-pp154-165
BibTeX
@article{mamasoliyevsarvar2025,
  title = {FORECASTING ENERGY CONSUMPTION IN UZBEKISTAN},
  author = {Mamasoliyev , Sarvar and Мамасалиев , Сарвар and Mamasoliyev, Sarvar},
  journal = {Иқтисодий тараққиёт ва таҳлил},
  year = {2025},
  volume = {3},
  number = {4},
  pages = {154-165},
  doi = {10.60078/2992-877x-2025-vol3-iss4-pp154-165},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.60078/2992-877x-2025-vol3-iss4-pp154-165}
}

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