Are the current researched early warning indicators significant in identifying banking crises?

Berdiyorov , Bekzod, Masharipov , Sarvar, Berdiyorov , Jahongir

Яшил иқтисодиёт ва тараққиёт · 2024-yil

Annotatsiya

This paper continues the discussion set forth in the paper “Initial research: Are the current researched earlywarning indicators significant in identifying banking crises?” by Berdiyorov (2024) with expanding on the paper: ‘EarlyWarning Indicators of Banking Crises: Expanding the Family’ by Aldasoro, Borio and Drehmann (2018). Using a pooledlogistic model with large a data set from 1980 to 2019 containing multiple countries and crises and estimating the optimalthresholds for each indicator to produce accurate true signals of banking crises. I establish that the current EWIs, mainlythe credit-to-GDP gap, are still highly significant and reliable indicators of banking crises, producing highly significantinformative signals according to the AUROCs and signal-to-noise ratios. In addition, the additional indicators introducedin this paper are found to also be effective statistically significant indicators of vulnerabilities within the banking industry.For example, the loans-to-deposit has high AUCs across all time horizons and the highest signal-to-noise ratios amongstall the indicators.

Maqola ma’lumotlari
MualliflarBerdiyorov , Bekzod, Masharipov , Sarvar, Berdiyorov , Jahongir
JurnalЯшил иқтисодиёт ва тараққиёт
NashriyotТошкент давлат иқтисодиёт университети
ISSN2992-8982
Nashr sanasi2024-10-18
Jild2
TilIngliz
Ilmiy sohaIqtisodiyot
DOI10.5281/zenodo.14295179
Indeksga qo‘shilgan2026-08-26

DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.14295179 · Maqolaning asl sahifasi

Kalit so‘zlar

Early Warning Indicators (EWIs), Banking Crises, pooled logistic model, AUROCs.

Ilmiy soha

Iqtisodiyot

Iqtibos keltirish

APABerdiyorov , Bekzod, Masharipov , Sarvar, & Berdiyorov , Jahongir (2024). Are the current researched early warning indicators significant in identifying banking crises?. Яшил иқтисодиёт ва тараққиёт, 2. https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.14295179
GOST (OAK)Berdiyorov , Bekzod, Masharipov , Sarvar, Berdiyorov , Jahongir Are the current researched early warning indicators significant in identifying banking crises? // Яшил иқтисодиёт ва тараққиёт. – 2024. – T. 2. – DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.14295179.
MLABerdiyorov , Bekzod, Masharipov , Sarvar, and Berdiyorov , Jahongir. “Are the current researched early warning indicators significant in identifying banking crises?.” Яшил иқтисодиёт ва тараққиёт, 2, 2024. https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.14295179
ChicagoBerdiyorov , Bekzod, Masharipov , Sarvar, and Berdiyorov , Jahongir. “Are the current researched early warning indicators significant in identifying banking crises?.” Яшил иқтисодиёт ва тараққиёт, 2 (2024). https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.14295179
HarvardBerdiyorov , Bekzod, Masharipov , Sarvar, and Berdiyorov , Jahongir (2024) ‘Are the current researched early warning indicators significant in identifying banking crises?’, Яшил иқтисодиёт ва тараққиёт, 2. https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.14295179
BibTeX
@article{berdiyorovbekzod2024,
  title = {Are the current researched early warning indicators significant in identifying banking crises?},
  author = {Berdiyorov , Bekzod and Masharipov , Sarvar and Berdiyorov , Jahongir},
  journal = {Яшил иқтисодиёт ва тараққиёт},
  year = {2024},
  volume = {2},
  doi = {10.5281/zenodo.14295179},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.14295179}
}

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