The causal relationship between foreign direct investment and economic growth in Turkey: a toda–yamamoto analysis

Yilmaz, Ulvi UZUN, Йилмаз, Улви Узун, Yilmaz, Ulvi Uzun

Илғор иқтисодиёт ва педагогик технологиялар · 2026-yil

Annotatsiya

This study investigates the causal impact of foreign direct investment (FDI) on economic growth in Turkey using annual time series data spanning the period 1980–2020. Economic growth is proxied by real per capita gross domestic product (GDP). The dataset was sourced from internationally reputable institutions such as the World Bank and TurkStat, and all variables were log-transformed to ensure suitability for statistical analysis. Due to the presence of variables with different orders of integration, the Toda–Yamamoto causality approach—robust to variables with mixed integration orders—was employed. The stationarity of the series was tested using the Augmented Dickey-Fuller and Phillips-Perron tests, while the optimal lag length was determined based on information criteria. Diagnostic tests for autocorrelation, heteroskedasticity, and structural stability were conducted to ensure model adequacy. The empirical findings reveal a statistically significant unidirectional causality running from FDI to economic growth at the 1% significance level, with no evidence of reverse causality. These results indicate that FDI functions not only as a source of external capital, but also as a strategic driver of growth by enhancing productivity, facilitating knowledge and technology transfer, and driving structural transformation. By incorporating a long-term dataset and accounting for the macroeconomic structure, this study offers a methodologically robust and contextually grounded contribution to the literature on the FDI-growth nexus in developing economies

Maqola ma’lumotlari
MualliflarYilmaz, Ulvi UZUN, Йилмаз, Улви Узун, Yilmaz, Ulvi Uzun
JurnalИлғор иқтисодиёт ва педагогик технологиялар
NashriyotТошкент давлат иқтисодиёт университети ҳузуридаги «Ўзбекистон иқтисодиётини ривожлантиришнинг илмий асослари ва муаммолари» илмий-тадқиқот маркази
ISSN1994-2025
Nashr sanasi2026-02-13
Jild3
Son1
Betlar435-449
TilIngliz
Ilmiy sohaIqtisodiyot
DOI10.60078/3060-4842-2026-vol3-iss1-pp435-449
Indeksga qo‘shilgan2026-08-26

DOI: 10.60078/3060-4842-2026-vol3-iss1-pp435-449 · Maqolaning asl sahifasi

Kalit so‘zlar

foreign direct ınvestment, economic growth, Toda-Yamamoto causality test, time series analysis, Turkish economy, прямые иностранные инвестиции, экономический рост, тест причинности Тода–Ямамото, анализ временных рядов, экономика Турции, xorijiy to‘g‘ridan-to‘g‘ri investitsiyalar, iqtisodiy o‘sish, Toda–Yamamoto sababiylik testi, vaqt qatorlari tahlili, Turkiya iqtisodiyoti

Ilmiy soha

Iqtisodiyot

Iqtibos keltirish

APAYilmaz, Ulvi UZUN, Йилмаз, Улви Узун, & Yilmaz, Ulvi Uzun (2026). THE CAUSAL RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT AND ECONOMIC GROWTH IN TURKEY: A TODA–YAMAMOTO ANALYSIS. Илғор иқтисодиёт ва педагогик технологиялар, 3(1), 435-449. https://doi.org/10.60078/3060-4842-2026-vol3-iss1-pp435-449
GOST (OAK)Yilmaz, Ulvi UZUN, Йилмаз, Улви Узун, Yilmaz, Ulvi Uzun THE CAUSAL RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT AND ECONOMIC GROWTH IN TURKEY: A TODA–YAMAMOTO ANALYSIS // Илғор иқтисодиёт ва педагогик технологиялар. – 2026. – T. 3, № 1. – P. 435-449. – DOI: 10.60078/3060-4842-2026-vol3-iss1-pp435-449.
MLAYilmaz, Ulvi UZUN, Йилмаз, Улви Узун, and Yilmaz, Ulvi Uzun. “THE CAUSAL RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT AND ECONOMIC GROWTH IN TURKEY: A TODA–YAMAMOTO ANALYSIS.” Илғор иқтисодиёт ва педагогик технологиялар, 3(1), 435-449, 2026. https://doi.org/10.60078/3060-4842-2026-vol3-iss1-pp435-449
ChicagoYilmaz, Ulvi UZUN, Йилмаз, Улви Узун, and Yilmaz, Ulvi Uzun. “THE CAUSAL RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT AND ECONOMIC GROWTH IN TURKEY: A TODA–YAMAMOTO ANALYSIS.” Илғор иқтисодиёт ва педагогик технологиялар, 3(1), 435-449 (2026). https://doi.org/10.60078/3060-4842-2026-vol3-iss1-pp435-449
HarvardYilmaz, Ulvi UZUN, Йилмаз, Улви Узун, and Yilmaz, Ulvi Uzun (2026) ‘THE CAUSAL RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT AND ECONOMIC GROWTH IN TURKEY: A TODA–YAMAMOTO ANALYSIS’, Илғор иқтисодиёт ва педагогик технологиялар, 3(1), 435-449. https://doi.org/10.60078/3060-4842-2026-vol3-iss1-pp435-449
BibTeX
@article{yilmazulviuzun2026,
  title = {THE CAUSAL RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT AND ECONOMIC GROWTH IN TURKEY: A TODA–YAMAMOTO ANALYSIS},
  author = {Yilmaz, Ulvi UZUN and Йилмаз, Улви Узун and Yilmaz, Ulvi Uzun},
  journal = {Илғор иқтисодиёт ва педагогик технологиялар},
  year = {2026},
  volume = {3},
  number = {1},
  pages = {435-449},
  doi = {10.60078/3060-4842-2026-vol3-iss1-pp435-449},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.60078/3060-4842-2026-vol3-iss1-pp435-449}
}

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