Drivers of non-performing loans (NPLs) in Uzbekistan’s commercial banks and the effectiveness of early warning mechanisms for credit risk

Jalilova , Barno, Жалилова , Барно, Jalilova , Barno

Илғор иқтисодиёт ва педагогик технологиялар · 2026-yil

Annotatsiya

This article examines the drivers of non-performing loans (NPLs) in Uzbekistan’s commercial banks by combining macroeconomic determinants with bank-specific factors and assesses the effectiveness of early warning systems (EWS) in mitigating the procyclicality of asset-quality deterioration. The empirical narrative relies on official Central Bank of the Republic of Uzbekistan indicators for NPLs and loan portfolios, complemented by recent empirical studies on NPL determinants in transforming banking systems. Particular attention is paid to ownership-related heterogeneity (state-owned vs. other banks), comparability issues between regulatory NPL metrics and IFRS 9-based measures, and the role of loan restructuring practices. The paper derives policy-oriented recommendations aimed at improving disclosure of asset quality, integrating IFRS 9 indicators into supervisory monitoring, and standardizing EWS triggers for timely detection of borrower credit deterioration.

Maqola ma’lumotlari
MualliflarJalilova , Barno, Жалилова , Барно, Jalilova , Barno
JurnalИлғор иқтисодиёт ва педагогик технологиялар
NashriyotТошкент давлат иқтисодиёт университети ҳузуридаги «Ўзбекистон иқтисодиётини ривожлантиришнинг илмий асослари ва муаммолари» илмий-тадқиқот маркази
ISSN1994-2025
Nashr sanasi2026-02-11
Jild3
Son1
Betlar335-342
TilIngliz
Ilmiy sohaIqtisodiyot
DOI10.60078/3060-4842-2026-vol3-iss1-pp335-342
Indeksga qo‘shilgan2026-08-26

DOI: 10.60078/3060-4842-2026-vol3-iss1-pp335-342 · Maqolaning asl sahifasi

Kalit so‘zlar

non-performing loans, NPL, credit risk, commercial banks, Uzbekistan, early warning system, EWS, restructuring, IFRS 9, financial stability, проблемные кредиты, NPL, кредитный риск, коммерческие банки, Узбекистан, раннее предупреждение, EWS, реструктуризация, IFRS 9, финансовая устойчивость, muammoli kreditlar, NPL, kredit riski, tijorat banklari, O‘zbekiston, erta ogohlantirish, EWS, restrukturizatsiya, IFRS 9, moliyaviy barqarorlik

Ilmiy soha

Iqtisodiyot

Iqtibos keltirish

APAJalilova , Barno, Жалилова , Барно, & Jalilova , Barno (2026). DRIVERS OF NON-PERFORMING LOANS (NPLs) IN UZBEKISTAN’S COMMERCIAL BANKS AND THE EFFECTIVENESS OF EARLY WARNING MECHANISMS FOR CREDIT RISK. Илғор иқтисодиёт ва педагогик технологиялар, 3(1), 335-342. https://doi.org/10.60078/3060-4842-2026-vol3-iss1-pp335-342
GOST (OAK)Jalilova , Barno, Жалилова , Барно, Jalilova , Barno DRIVERS OF NON-PERFORMING LOANS (NPLs) IN UZBEKISTAN’S COMMERCIAL BANKS AND THE EFFECTIVENESS OF EARLY WARNING MECHANISMS FOR CREDIT RISK // Илғор иқтисодиёт ва педагогик технологиялар. – 2026. – T. 3, № 1. – P. 335-342. – DOI: 10.60078/3060-4842-2026-vol3-iss1-pp335-342.
MLAJalilova , Barno, Жалилова , Барно, and Jalilova , Barno. “DRIVERS OF NON-PERFORMING LOANS (NPLs) IN UZBEKISTAN’S COMMERCIAL BANKS AND THE EFFECTIVENESS OF EARLY WARNING MECHANISMS FOR CREDIT RISK.” Илғор иқтисодиёт ва педагогик технологиялар, 3(1), 335-342, 2026. https://doi.org/10.60078/3060-4842-2026-vol3-iss1-pp335-342
ChicagoJalilova , Barno, Жалилова , Барно, and Jalilova , Barno. “DRIVERS OF NON-PERFORMING LOANS (NPLs) IN UZBEKISTAN’S COMMERCIAL BANKS AND THE EFFECTIVENESS OF EARLY WARNING MECHANISMS FOR CREDIT RISK.” Илғор иқтисодиёт ва педагогик технологиялар, 3(1), 335-342 (2026). https://doi.org/10.60078/3060-4842-2026-vol3-iss1-pp335-342
HarvardJalilova , Barno, Жалилова , Барно, and Jalilova , Barno (2026) ‘DRIVERS OF NON-PERFORMING LOANS (NPLs) IN UZBEKISTAN’S COMMERCIAL BANKS AND THE EFFECTIVENESS OF EARLY WARNING MECHANISMS FOR CREDIT RISK’, Илғор иқтисодиёт ва педагогик технологиялар, 3(1), 335-342. https://doi.org/10.60078/3060-4842-2026-vol3-iss1-pp335-342
BibTeX
@article{jalilovabarno2026,
  title = {DRIVERS OF NON-PERFORMING LOANS (NPLs) IN UZBEKISTAN’S COMMERCIAL BANKS AND THE EFFECTIVENESS OF EARLY WARNING MECHANISMS FOR CREDIT RISK},
  author = {Jalilova , Barno and Жалилова , Барно and Jalilova , Barno},
  journal = {Илғор иқтисодиёт ва педагогик технологиялар},
  year = {2026},
  volume = {3},
  number = {1},
  pages = {335-342},
  doi = {10.60078/3060-4842-2026-vol3-iss1-pp335-342},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.60078/3060-4842-2026-vol3-iss1-pp335-342}
}

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