Integrated Assessment of the Solar Energy Potential of the Kyrgyz Republic with Account of Radiation, Land and Infrastructure Factors

Ergashali Yu. Raximov, Nilufar R. Avezova, Idirisbek G. Kenzhaev, Zhanbolot J. Tursunbaev

Энергия ва ресурс тежаш муаммолари · 2026-yil

Annotatsiya

Relevance: The Kyrgyz Republic has a significant solar radiation resource, but its power sector relies mainly on hydropower, and the winter load peak coincides with the seasonal minimum of river flow. A consistent nested assessment of the potential, with all levels calculated on a single grid and period and a robustness-tested comparison of oblasts, is still lacking. Aim: To obtain nested estimates of the gross radiation and technical potential of grid-connected photovoltaic plants, to screen grid access of suitable sites in the seven oblasts and to determine a robust priority order of the oblasts. Methods: Open data for 2001–2025 (ERA5-Land, Copernicus DEM GLO-30, ESA WorldCover, WDPA, OpenStreetMap) were processed on a 100 m grid. The gross potential accounts for horizon shading and slope aspect; the technical potential was estimated under three exclusion scenarios with an hourly pvlib-based yield model; grid access was screened by the distance to power lines. The ranking of the oblasts by five indicators was tested in 20 formulations and under random weight sets. Results: The gross solar radiation potential amounts to 351.8 thousand TWh per year (331.0 thousand TWh with horizon shading and slope aspect). At a placement density of 70 MW/km² (DC), the technical potential ranges from 688 to 10,437 TWh per year depending on the exclusion scenario. Among contiguous sites of at least 1 km², 45.6% of their total area lies within 5 km of a power line. The Issyk-Kul, Osh, Batken and Naryn oblasts form the group of highest priority for preliminary investigation.

Maqola ma’lumotlari
MualliflarErgashali Yu. Raximov, Nilufar R. Avezova, Idirisbek G. Kenzhaev, Zhanbolot J. Tursunbaev
JurnalЭнергия ва ресурс тежаш муаммолари
Nashriyot«Ўзбекэнерго» АО, ТДТУ, Ўзбекистон Республикаси ФА, Энергия ва ресурслар тежаш илмий-амалий ўқув маркази, «Ўздавэнергоназорат» давлат инспекцияси, «Энергия тежамкорлиги ва қайта тикланувчи энергия манбалари» илмий-тадқиқот лабораторияси
ISSN2091-5985, 2181-1946
Nashr sanasi2026-10-19
Son3
Betlar183-194
TilIngliz
Ilmiy sohaTexnika
Indeksga qo‘shilgan2026-10-22

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Kalit so‘zlar

Потенциал солнечной энергетики, Solar energy potential, Quyosh energetikasi salohiyati

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Texnika

Iqtibos keltirish

APAErgashali Yu. Raximov, Nilufar R. Avezova, Idirisbek G. Kenzhaev, & Zhanbolot J. Tursunbaev (2026). Integrated Assessment of the Solar Energy Potential of the Kyrgyz Republic with Account of Radiation, Land and Infrastructure Factors. Энергия ва ресурс тежаш муаммолари, (3), 183-194. https://energy.tdtu.uz/index.php/journal/article/view/467
GOST (OAK)Ergashali Yu. Raximov va b. Integrated Assessment of the Solar Energy Potential of the Kyrgyz Republic with Account of Radiation, Land and Infrastructure Factors // Энергия ва ресурс тежаш муаммолари. – 2026. – № 3. – P. 183-194.
MLAErgashali Yu. Raximov, Nilufar R. Avezova, Idirisbek G. Kenzhaev, and Zhanbolot J. Tursunbaev. “Integrated Assessment of the Solar Energy Potential of the Kyrgyz Republic with Account of Radiation, Land and Infrastructure Factors.” Энергия ва ресурс тежаш муаммолари, (3), 183-194, 2026. https://energy.tdtu.uz/index.php/journal/article/view/467
ChicagoErgashali Yu. Raximov, Nilufar R. Avezova, Idirisbek G. Kenzhaev, and Zhanbolot J. Tursunbaev. “Integrated Assessment of the Solar Energy Potential of the Kyrgyz Republic with Account of Radiation, Land and Infrastructure Factors.” Энергия ва ресурс тежаш муаммолари, (3), 183-194 (2026). https://energy.tdtu.uz/index.php/journal/article/view/467
HarvardErgashali Yu. Raximov, Nilufar R. Avezova, Idirisbek G. Kenzhaev, and Zhanbolot J. Tursunbaev (2026) ‘Integrated Assessment of the Solar Energy Potential of the Kyrgyz Republic with Account of Radiation, Land and Infrastructure Factors’, Энергия ва ресурс тежаш муаммолари, (3), 183-194. https://energy.tdtu.uz/index.php/journal/article/view/467
BibTeX
@article{ergashaliyuraximov2026,
  title = {Integrated Assessment of the Solar Energy Potential of the Kyrgyz Republic with Account of Radiation, Land and Infrastructure Factors},
  author = {Ergashali Yu. Raximov and Nilufar R. Avezova and Idirisbek G. Kenzhaev and Zhanbolot J. Tursunbaev},
  journal = {Энергия ва ресурс тежаш муаммолари},
  year = {2026},
  number = {3},
  pages = {183-194},
  url = {https://energy.tdtu.uz/index.php/journal/article/view/467}
}

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