Green energy transition in central asia: capacity growth, technological diversification and system constraints

Курпаяниди, Константин Иванович, Kurpayanidi, Konstantin Ivanovich, Kurpayanidi, Konstantin Ivanovich

Agrobiznes, fan va texnologiyalar · 2026-yil

Annotatsiya

This study reassesses the green-energy transition in Kazakhstan, the Kyrgyz Republic, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan using the latest harmonised capacity data available in 2026 and a structured review of 17 Scopus-indexed studies published in 2020-2026. The empirical design separates scale, speed and technological composition rather than treating installed renewable capacity as a single measure of transition maturity. Three indicators are calculated for 2023-2025: compound annual capacity growth, each country's contribution to regional capacity additions, and a technology-concentration index based on hydropower, solar and wind shares. Regional renewable capacity rose from 17.636 GW in 2023 to 25.482 GW in 2025, an increase of 44.5%. Uzbekistan accounted for 86.4% of the net regional addition and reached 10.027 GW, while solar and wind represented 75.6% of its renewable portfolio. Kazakhstan retained the most technologically balanced portfolio, whereas the Kyrgyz Republic and Tajikistan remained strongly hydro-dependent. The results show that capacity expansion and transition quality are analytically distinct. A durable transition requires grid reinforcement, storage, flexible dispatch, competitive procurement, credible investment rules and regional electricity exchange. The article proposes a system-value framework in which new renewable capacity is evaluated by delivered generation, reliability, curtailment, carbon intensity and integration cost rather than by megawatts alone.

Maqola ma’lumotlari
MualliflarКурпаяниди, Константин Иванович, Kurpayanidi, Konstantin Ivanovich, Kurpayanidi, Konstantin Ivanovich
JurnalAgrobiznes, fan va texnologiyalar
NashriyotТошкент давлат аграр университети
Nashr sanasi2026-10-30
Jild4
Son10
TilIngliz
Ilmiy sohaIqtisodiyot
DOI10.68372/fvm9wp62
Indeksga qo‘shilgan2026-10-08

DOI: 10.68372/fvm9wp62 · Maqolaning asl sahifasi

Kalit so‘zlar

Central Asia, renewable energy, energy transition, solar power, wind power, hydropower, grid flexibility, energy security, regional electricity trade, Центральная Азия, возобновляемая энергетика, энергетический переход, солнечная энергетика, ветроэнергетика, гидроэнергетика, гибкость энергосистемы, энергетическая безопасность, региональная торговля электроэнергией, Markaziy Osiyo, qayta tiklanuvchi energiya, energetika o'tishi, quyosh energiyasi, shamol energetikasi, gidroenergetika, energiya tizimi moslashuvchanligi, energiya xavfsizligi, mintaqaviy elektr energiyasi savdosi

Ilmiy soha

Iqtisodiyot

Iqtibos keltirish

APAКурпаяниди, Константин Иванович, Kurpayanidi, Konstantin Ivanovich, & Kurpayanidi, Konstantin Ivanovich (2026). Green energy transition in central asia: capacity growth, technological diversification and system constraints. Agrobiznes, fan va texnologiyalar, 4(10). https://doi.org/10.68372/fvm9wp62
GOST (OAK)Курпаяниди, Константин Иванович, Kurpayanidi, Konstantin Ivanovich, Kurpayanidi, Konstantin Ivanovich Green energy transition in central asia: capacity growth, technological diversification and system constraints // Agrobiznes, fan va texnologiyalar. – 2026. – T. 4, № 10. – DOI: 10.68372/fvm9wp62.
MLAКурпаяниди, Константин Иванович, Kurpayanidi, Konstantin Ivanovich, and Kurpayanidi, Konstantin Ivanovich. “Green energy transition in central asia: capacity growth, technological diversification and system constraints.” Agrobiznes, fan va texnologiyalar, 4(10), 2026. https://doi.org/10.68372/fvm9wp62
ChicagoКурпаяниди, Константин Иванович, Kurpayanidi, Konstantin Ivanovich, and Kurpayanidi, Konstantin Ivanovich. “Green energy transition in central asia: capacity growth, technological diversification and system constraints.” Agrobiznes, fan va texnologiyalar, 4(10) (2026). https://doi.org/10.68372/fvm9wp62
HarvardКурпаяниди, Константин Иванович, Kurpayanidi, Konstantin Ivanovich, and Kurpayanidi, Konstantin Ivanovich (2026) ‘Green energy transition in central asia: capacity growth, technological diversification and system constraints’, Agrobiznes, fan va texnologiyalar, 4(10). https://doi.org/10.68372/fvm9wp62
BibTeX
@article{article2026,
  title = {Green energy transition in central asia: capacity growth, technological diversification and system constraints},
  author = {Курпаяниди, Константин Иванович and Kurpayanidi, Konstantin Ivanovich and Kurpayanidi, Konstantin Ivanovich},
  journal = {Agrobiznes, fan va texnologiyalar},
  year = {2026},
  volume = {4},
  number = {10},
  doi = {10.68372/fvm9wp62},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.68372/fvm9wp62}
}

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