Forecasting of agricultural production indicators in surkhandarya region using the arima model

Abdurayimov , Kamoliddin

Яшил иқтисодиёт ва тараққиёт · 2026-yil

Annotatsiya

This article applies the ARIMA (1,2,0) model to forecast agricultural production in theSurkhandarya region. The stationarity of the time series was examined using the Augmented Dickey–Fullertest, while the model parameters were identified based on the ACF and PACF correlograms. Model reliabilitywas evaluated using the coefficient of determination, information criteria, and the Mean Absolute PercentageError (MAPE). The absence of autocorrelation was confirmed by the Ljung–Box test, whereas the absence ofheteroscedasticity was verified using the ARCH–LM test. Forecast values for 2026–2030 were estimated witha 95% confidence interval

Maqola ma’lumotlari
MualliflarAbdurayimov , Kamoliddin
JurnalЯшил иқтисодиёт ва тараққиёт
NashriyotТошкент давлат иқтисодиёт университети
ISSN2992-8982
Nashr sanasi2026-07-01
Jild4
Son7
Betlar369-376
TilIngliz
Ilmiy sohaIqtisodiyot
DOI10.5281/zenodo.21324207
Indeksga qo‘shilgan2026-09-06

DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.21324207 · Maqolaning asl sahifasi

Kalit so‘zlar

ARIMA model, forecasting, agricultural production, time series, stationarity, Augmented Dickey–Fuller test, autocorrelation, Surkhandarya region

Ilmiy soha

Iqtisodiyot

Iqtibos keltirish

APAAbdurayimov , Kamoliddin (2026). FORECASTING OF AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION INDICATORS IN SURKHANDARYA REGION USING THE ARIMA MODEL. Яшил иқтисодиёт ва тараққиёт, 4(7), 369-376. https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.21324207
GOST (OAK)Abdurayimov , Kamoliddin FORECASTING OF AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION INDICATORS IN SURKHANDARYA REGION USING THE ARIMA MODEL // Яшил иқтисодиёт ва тараққиёт. – 2026. – T. 4, № 7. – P. 369-376. – DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.21324207.
MLAAbdurayimov , Kamoliddin. “FORECASTING OF AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION INDICATORS IN SURKHANDARYA REGION USING THE ARIMA MODEL.” Яшил иқтисодиёт ва тараққиёт, 4(7), 369-376, 2026. https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.21324207
ChicagoAbdurayimov , Kamoliddin. “FORECASTING OF AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION INDICATORS IN SURKHANDARYA REGION USING THE ARIMA MODEL.” Яшил иқтисодиёт ва тараққиёт, 4(7), 369-376 (2026). https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.21324207
HarvardAbdurayimov , Kamoliddin (2026) ‘FORECASTING OF AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION INDICATORS IN SURKHANDARYA REGION USING THE ARIMA MODEL’, Яшил иқтисодиёт ва тараққиёт, 4(7), 369-376. https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.21324207
BibTeX
@article{abdurayimovkamoliddin2026,
  title = {FORECASTING OF AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION INDICATORS IN SURKHANDARYA REGION USING THE ARIMA MODEL},
  author = {Abdurayimov , Kamoliddin},
  journal = {Яшил иқтисодиёт ва тараққиёт},
  year = {2026},
  volume = {4},
  number = {7},
  pages = {369-376},
  doi = {10.5281/zenodo.21324207},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.21324207}
}

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