Forecasting trends of agricultural productivity in Uzbekistan: an arima model approach

Boribaeva , Qundiz, Kodirov , Farkhod, Борибаева , Кундыз, Кодиров , Фарход, Boribaeva , Qundiz, Kodirov, Farkhod

Иқтисодий тараққиёт ва таҳлил · 2026-yil

Annotatsiya

This study intends to forecast the agricultural commodities in Uzbekistan. The data were obtained from National Statistical Committee of the Republic of Uzbekistan. The study’s 15-year duration spans from 2010 until 2024. Box-Jenkin’s methodology, known as Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) approach was used in this study on a number of specific Uzbek agricultural commodities. According to the methodology requirement for large amount of data points, 10 species of agricultural products were chosen. All the essential steps of the model were utilized methodically for dynamic forecasting 5 periods ahead from 2025onwards. Using various model selection criteria, including Adj R^ 2, the minimum AIC value, and the lowest MAPE values, the study confirmed the accuracy of the model. Barley had the lowest Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) value among these products, while cabbage had the lowest Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) value.

Maqola ma’lumotlari
MualliflarBoribaeva , Qundiz, Kodirov , Farkhod, Борибаева , Кундыз, Кодиров , Фарход, Boribaeva , Qundiz, Kodirov, Farkhod
JurnalИқтисодий тараққиёт ва таҳлил
NashriyotЎзбекистон иқтисодиётини ривожлантиришнинг илмий-тадқиқот маркази
ISSN2992-877X
Nashr sanasi2026-02-27
Jild4
Son2
Betlar68-76
TilIngliz
Ilmiy sohaIqtisodiyot
DOI10.60078/2992-877x-2026-vol4-iss2-pp68-76
Indeksga qo‘shilgan2026-08-27

DOI: 10.60078/2992-877x-2026-vol4-iss2-pp68-76 · Maqolaning asl sahifasi

Kalit so‘zlar

agricultural productivity, Box-Jenkin’s method, ARIMA model, MAPE, forecasting, AIC, сельскохозяйственная продуктивность, метод Бокса Дженкинса, модель ARIMA, MAPE, прогнозирование, AIC, qishloq xo‘jaligi mahsuldorligi, Box–Jenkins usuli, ARIMA modeli, MAPE, prognozlash, AIC

Ilmiy soha

Iqtisodiyot

Iqtibos keltirish

APABoribaeva , Qundiz, Kodirov , Farkhod, Борибаева , Кундыз, Кодиров , Фарход, Boribaeva , Qundiz, & Kodirov, Farkhod (2026). FORECASTING TRENDS OF AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTIVITY IN UZBEKISTAN: AN ARIMA MODEL APPROACH. Иқтисодий тараққиёт ва таҳлил, 4(2), 68-76. https://doi.org/10.60078/2992-877x-2026-vol4-iss2-pp68-76
GOST (OAK)Boribaeva , Qundiz va b. FORECASTING TRENDS OF AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTIVITY IN UZBEKISTAN: AN ARIMA MODEL APPROACH // Иқтисодий тараққиёт ва таҳлил. – 2026. – T. 4, № 2. – P. 68-76. – DOI: 10.60078/2992-877x-2026-vol4-iss2-pp68-76.
MLABoribaeva , Qundiz, Kodirov , Farkhod, Борибаева , Кундыз, Кодиров , Фарход, Boribaeva , Qundiz, and Kodirov, Farkhod. “FORECASTING TRENDS OF AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTIVITY IN UZBEKISTAN: AN ARIMA MODEL APPROACH.” Иқтисодий тараққиёт ва таҳлил, 4(2), 68-76, 2026. https://doi.org/10.60078/2992-877x-2026-vol4-iss2-pp68-76
ChicagoBoribaeva , Qundiz, Kodirov , Farkhod, Борибаева , Кундыз, Кодиров , Фарход, Boribaeva , Qundiz, and Kodirov, Farkhod. “FORECASTING TRENDS OF AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTIVITY IN UZBEKISTAN: AN ARIMA MODEL APPROACH.” Иқтисодий тараққиёт ва таҳлил, 4(2), 68-76 (2026). https://doi.org/10.60078/2992-877x-2026-vol4-iss2-pp68-76
HarvardBoribaeva , Qundiz, Kodirov , Farkhod, Борибаева , Кундыз, Кодиров , Фарход, Boribaeva , Qundiz, and Kodirov, Farkhod (2026) ‘FORECASTING TRENDS OF AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTIVITY IN UZBEKISTAN: AN ARIMA MODEL APPROACH’, Иқтисодий тараққиёт ва таҳлил, 4(2), 68-76. https://doi.org/10.60078/2992-877x-2026-vol4-iss2-pp68-76
BibTeX
@article{boribaevaqundiz2026,
  title = {FORECASTING TRENDS OF AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTIVITY IN UZBEKISTAN: AN ARIMA MODEL APPROACH},
  author = {Boribaeva , Qundiz and Kodirov , Farkhod and Борибаева , Кундыз and Кодиров , Фарход and Boribaeva , Qundiz and Kodirov, Farkhod},
  journal = {Иқтисодий тараққиёт ва таҳлил},
  year = {2026},
  volume = {4},
  number = {2},
  pages = {68-76},
  doi = {10.60078/2992-877x-2026-vol4-iss2-pp68-76},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.60078/2992-877x-2026-vol4-iss2-pp68-76}
}

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