Modeling the Spatio-Temporal Dynamics of a Reservoir Area (using the Kattakurgan Reservoir as an example) based on NDWI, NDVI, EVI Indices and Ensemble Learning Methods

Ravshanov, N., Rakhmanov, Kh.E., Fattaeva, D.A., Равшанов, Н., Рахманов, Х.Э., Фаттаева, Д.А.

Ҳисоблаш ва амалий математика муаммолари · 2026-yil

Annotatsiya

The paper models the spatiotemporal dynamics of the Kattakurgan Reservoir area using satellite-based water and vegetation indices combined with ensemble machinelearning methods. Multi-year time series of NDWI, NDVI, and EVI are used together with meteorological variables (air temperature, humidity, precipitation) from the ERA5 and CHIRPS datasets on the Google Earth Engine platform for 2018–2023. The reservoir water-surface area, derived from satellite imagery, serves as the target variable for training and validating a Random Forest model. The study includes a train–test split, hyperparameter tuning, and performance evaluation using R2, RMSE, and MAE. The results indicate high accuracy: R2 = 0.962 for NDWI prediction, and values close to 1 for reservoir area, with RMSE about 5–7 km2 and MAE 3–5 km2. Forecasts of NDWI and reservoir area for 2024 are produced to assess expected changes in water extent and support water-management decisions and climate adaptation planning.

Maqola ma’lumotlari
MualliflarRavshanov, N., Rakhmanov, Kh.E., Fattaeva, D.A., Равшанов, Н., Рахманов, Х.Э., Фаттаева, Д.А.
JurnalҲисоблаш ва амалий математика муаммолари
NashriyotТошкент ахборот технологиялари университети қошидаги, Ахборот-коммуникация технологиялари илмий-инновацион, маркази
ISSN2181-8460, 2181-046X
Nashr sanasi2026-01-11
Son6
Betlar61-73
TilIngliz
Ilmiy sohaTexnika
DOI10.71310/pcam.6_70.2025.05
Indeksga qo‘shilgan2026-08-27

DOI: 10.71310/pcam.6_70.2025.05 · Maqolaning asl sahifasi

Kalit so‘zlar

modeling, reservoir area forecast, indices, machine learning methods, spatiotemporal dynamics, моделирование, прогноз площади водохранилища, индексы, методы машинного обучения, пространственно-временная динамика

Ilmiy soha

Texnika

Iqtibos keltirish

APARavshanov, N., Rakhmanov, Kh.E., Fattaeva, D.A., Равшанов, Н., Рахманов, Х.Э., & Фаттаева, Д.А. (2026). Modeling the Spatio-Temporal Dynamics of a Reservoir Area (using the Kattakurgan Reservoir as an example) based on NDWI, NDVI, EVI Indices and Ensemble Learning Methods. Ҳисоблаш ва амалий математика муаммолари, (6), 61-73. https://doi.org/10.71310/pcam.6_70.2025.05
GOST (OAK)Ravshanov, N. va b. Modeling the Spatio-Temporal Dynamics of a Reservoir Area (using the Kattakurgan Reservoir as an example) based on NDWI, NDVI, EVI Indices and Ensemble Learning Methods // Ҳисоблаш ва амалий математика муаммолари. – 2026. – № 6. – P. 61-73. – DOI: 10.71310/pcam.6_70.2025.05.
MLARavshanov, N., Rakhmanov, Kh.E., Fattaeva, D.A., Равшанов, Н., Рахманов, Х.Э., and Фаттаева, Д.А. “Modeling the Spatio-Temporal Dynamics of a Reservoir Area (using the Kattakurgan Reservoir as an example) based on NDWI, NDVI, EVI Indices and Ensemble Learning Methods.” Ҳисоблаш ва амалий математика муаммолари, (6), 61-73, 2026. https://doi.org/10.71310/pcam.6_70.2025.05
ChicagoRavshanov, N., Rakhmanov, Kh.E., Fattaeva, D.A., Равшанов, Н., Рахманов, Х.Э., and Фаттаева, Д.А. “Modeling the Spatio-Temporal Dynamics of a Reservoir Area (using the Kattakurgan Reservoir as an example) based on NDWI, NDVI, EVI Indices and Ensemble Learning Methods.” Ҳисоблаш ва амалий математика муаммолари, (6), 61-73 (2026). https://doi.org/10.71310/pcam.6_70.2025.05
HarvardRavshanov, N., Rakhmanov, Kh.E., Fattaeva, D.A., Равшанов, Н., Рахманов, Х.Э., and Фаттаева, Д.А (2026) ‘Modeling the Spatio-Temporal Dynamics of a Reservoir Area (using the Kattakurgan Reservoir as an example) based on NDWI, NDVI, EVI Indices and Ensemble Learning Methods’, Ҳисоблаш ва амалий математика муаммолари, (6), 61-73. https://doi.org/10.71310/pcam.6_70.2025.05
BibTeX
@article{ravshanovn2026,
  title = {Modeling the Spatio-Temporal Dynamics of a Reservoir Area (using the Kattakurgan Reservoir as an example) based on NDWI, NDVI, EVI Indices and Ensemble Learning Methods},
  author = {Ravshanov, N. and Rakhmanov, Kh.E. and Fattaeva, D.A. and Равшанов, Н. and Рахманов, Х.Э. and Фаттаева, Д.А.},
  journal = {Ҳисоблаш ва амалий математика муаммолари},
  year = {2026},
  number = {6},
  pages = {61-73},
  doi = {10.71310/pcam.6_70.2025.05},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.71310/pcam.6_70.2025.05}
}

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