Modeling the diffusion of digital banking adoption in Uzbekistan: evidence from tbc bank using the bass diffusion model and a hybrid regression approach

Nabieva, Feruza

Яшил иқтисодиёт ва тараққиёт · 2026-yil

Annotatsiya

This study models the diffusion dynamics of digital banking adoption in Uzbekistan using TBC Bank as acase study. Building on the Bass diffusion framework, customer acquisition is conceptualized as a combined effect ofinnovation-driven adoption and imitation-driven adoption amplified by network effects. Using historical data for 2019–2024,diffusion parameters are estimated through nonlinear curve fitting, and adoption trajectories are forecast through 2030.The baseline Bass model suggests that the number of registered customers may approach approximately 19.9 millionby 2030, with the most rapid growth expected during 2025–2027, followed by gradual deceleration. However, standalonediffusion estimates exhibit non-trivial forecasting errors when compared with observed customer data, reflecting themodel’s limited capacity to account for demographic trends and market shocks. To enhance predictive accuracy, a hybridspecification combining polynomial trend regression with Bass-type diffusion components is proposed. The hybrid modeldemonstrates substantially lower error metrics and closer alignment with observed adoption dynamics. Overall, thefindings support the applicability of diffusion modeling for strategic planning in emerging digital banking markets, whileemphasizing the necessity of integrating demographic, competitive, and regulatory factors into forecasting frameworks.

Maqola ma’lumotlari
MualliflarNabieva, Feruza
JurnalЯшил иқтисодиёт ва тараққиёт
NashriyotТошкент давлат иқтисодиёт университети
ISSN2992-8982
Nashr sanasi2026-02-01
Jild4
Son2
TilIngliz
Ilmiy sohaIqtisodiyot
DOI10.5281/zenodo.18524839
Indeksga qo‘shilgan2026-08-26

DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.18524839 · Maqolaning asl sahifasi

Kalit so‘zlar

Bass diffusion; digital banking; customer adoption; network effects; forecasting; Uzbekistan; TBC Bank; hybrid model.

Ilmiy soha

Iqtisodiyot

Iqtibos keltirish

APANabieva, Feruza (2026). MODELING THE DIFFUSION OF DIGITAL BANKING ADOPTION IN UZBEKISTAN: EVIDENCE FROM TBC BANK USING THE BASS DIFFUSION MODEL AND A HYBRID REGRESSION APPROACH. Яшил иқтисодиёт ва тараққиёт, 4(2). https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.18524839
GOST (OAK)Nabieva, Feruza MODELING THE DIFFUSION OF DIGITAL BANKING ADOPTION IN UZBEKISTAN: EVIDENCE FROM TBC BANK USING THE BASS DIFFUSION MODEL AND A HYBRID REGRESSION APPROACH // Яшил иқтисодиёт ва тараққиёт. – 2026. – T. 4, № 2. – DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.18524839.
MLANabieva, Feruza. “MODELING THE DIFFUSION OF DIGITAL BANKING ADOPTION IN UZBEKISTAN: EVIDENCE FROM TBC BANK USING THE BASS DIFFUSION MODEL AND A HYBRID REGRESSION APPROACH.” Яшил иқтисодиёт ва тараққиёт, 4(2), 2026. https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.18524839
ChicagoNabieva, Feruza. “MODELING THE DIFFUSION OF DIGITAL BANKING ADOPTION IN UZBEKISTAN: EVIDENCE FROM TBC BANK USING THE BASS DIFFUSION MODEL AND A HYBRID REGRESSION APPROACH.” Яшил иқтисодиёт ва тараққиёт, 4(2) (2026). https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.18524839
HarvardNabieva, Feruza (2026) ‘MODELING THE DIFFUSION OF DIGITAL BANKING ADOPTION IN UZBEKISTAN: EVIDENCE FROM TBC BANK USING THE BASS DIFFUSION MODEL AND A HYBRID REGRESSION APPROACH’, Яшил иқтисодиёт ва тараққиёт, 4(2). https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.18524839
BibTeX
@article{nabievaferuza2026,
  title = {MODELING THE DIFFUSION OF DIGITAL BANKING ADOPTION IN UZBEKISTAN: EVIDENCE FROM TBC BANK USING THE BASS DIFFUSION MODEL AND A HYBRID REGRESSION APPROACH},
  author = {Nabieva, Feruza},
  journal = {Яшил иқтисодиёт ва тараққиёт},
  year = {2026},
  volume = {4},
  number = {2},
  doi = {10.5281/zenodo.18524839},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.18524839}
}

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