ANALYSIS OF THE CURRENT STATE OF FOREIGN TRADE ACTIVITY IN UZBEKISTAN’S REGIONS AND FORECASTING REGIONAL FOREIGN TRADE UNDER WTO AND EAEU ACCESSION (BASED ON THE CASE OF KAZAKHSTAN).

Tojiqulova , Sitora

Яшил иқтисодиёт ва тараққиёт · 2025-yil

Annotatsiya

In recent years, Uzbekistan’s foreign trade has expanded significantly: between 2018 and 2024, total tradeturnover increased from USD 33.8 billion to USD 65.9 billion, almost doubling. This growth was driven by favorable globalconditions and internal reforms promoting liberalization and competitiveness. Regionally, trade remains concentrated inseveral key areas: Tashkent city accounts for 35–37% of the country’s total trade, mainly machinery and raw materialsimports; Navoiy specializes in non-ferrous metals and chemicals; the Fergana Valley focuses on textiles and agriculture;and Samarkand and Bukhara are major producers of food and construction materials.Kazakhstan’s experience demonstrates how simultaneous participation in the WTO and the Eurasian Economic Union(EAEU) produced mixed outcomes—enhancing export diversification but increasing dependence on Russia’s economy.Using regional panel data for Uzbekistan (2018–2024) and Kazakhstan (2015–2024), this study employs fixed-effectsmodels and ARIMA forecasts to assess regional trade prospects under WTO and EAEU scenarios. The estimates showthat in Kazakhstan, a 10% increase in regional GDP raises exports by roughly 10.5% (β₁ ≈ 1.05, p < 0.01), while tradeinertia is substantial (β₂ ≈ 0.62). For Uzbekistan, export dynamics display similar persistence. Forecasts for 2025–2029indicate stable export growth, with WTO membership expected to raise total exports by 4–5% annually and imports by6–7%, leading to a temporary widening of the trade deficit.Overall, WTO accession appears strategically more beneficial for Uzbekistan in the long run, supporting exportdiversification, industrial modernization, and foreign investment attraction. Meanwhile, EAEU membership offers shorttermadvantages in regional logistics but entails higher dependency risks. Thus, WTO membership should serve asUzbekistan’s primary integration priority, while regional alliances play a complementary role.

Maqola ma’lumotlari
MualliflarTojiqulova , Sitora
JurnalЯшил иқтисодиёт ва тараққиёт
Nashr sanasi2025-10-01
Jild3
Son10
TilIngliz
DOI10.5281/zenodo.17441433

DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.17441433 · Maqolaning asl sahifasi

Kalit so‘zlar

Uzbekistan, regional trade, foreign trade, exports, imports, WTO accession, EAEU membership, Kazakhstan comparison, panel data, econometric modeling, trade forecasting, regional disparities, GDP elasticity, trade policy, import dependence, export diversification, SME competitiveness, logistics infrastructure, industrial modernization, trade integration.

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